Just curious, anyone have a link to a poll showing Newt leading Obama before Newt was the subject of the attention? Thanks in advance.
THere is no indication by the polls that Gingrich can beat Obama -- no indication before Gingrich took the lead, none after Gingrich took the lead. None before Gingrich was attacked, none after Gingrich was attacked.
The current RCP average for the three candidates head-to-head:
Obama-v-Romney: Obama +1.8 Obama-v-Santorum: Obama +9.3 Obama-v-Gingrich: Obama +11.8
The trend for Santorum has been positive -- for example, the RCP average doesn't include this new Rasmussen report yet. Gingrich has trended down slightly, but he was never all that good.
I don't know where the evidence is for the meme that Gingrich is the "only one" who can beat Obama. It came from a misunderstanding of how Gingrich was "winning" the debates -- which some said meant he could beat Obama. That was before GIngrich said he did bad in debates if the crowd wasn't stacked in his favor, and couldn't win a debate if his opponent didn't tell the truth.
If Gingrich polled well against Obama, and could hold his lead against Romney, I'd be a happy supporter. If I thought he was a clear victor, I'd be happy with him. I am not saying people should drop their support -- I don't know how things will look in a week. I just don't see objective evidence that Gingrich is the 2nd coming of Reagan, is a solid conservative we can trust, or that barring that, he at least is the guy we know can beat Romney, (1 out of 4 isn't a good record), or is a guy who can beat Obama (virtually no polling data suggests that).
In a poll of swing states, Santorum was within single digits of Obama, while Gingrich was losing by double-digits. SO it isn't even clear that Gingrich can win enough states to take the electoral college.
Newt has never led Obama. In the recent Gallup, Obama thrashes Gingrich by nearly 11 points. Gingrich lost FL in all the major demographics and trailed Romney in the female vote by 20-points.
Santorum is our best candidate to bring in the Reagan Democrats and solidify the social conservatives. He is more telegenic that Gingrich or Obama and was the only person among the three candidates (Ron Paul excepted) to rail against TARP.
Go Santorum Go!