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January 2012 Employment Report: Blatant And Outrageous Lies (A bad report behind the numbers)
Market Ticker ^ | 02/03/2012 | Karl Denninger

Posted on 02/03/2012 1:08:20 PM PST by SeekAndFind

There are times when one questions a report as possibly being wrong or in error, and then there are times when one has to raise a flag and say "This is an intentionally false picture being presented by a government agency."

I'm in the latter camp with this one, and it is rare for me to brand something as not possibly wrong and in error, but intentionally fraudulent.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread in the private sector, with large employment gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Government employment changed little over the month.

This looks really good; here's the chart that is on the front page:

I wish I could take this report, pick it apart at the household level, and find confirmation.  Remember that last month the alleged 200,000 jobs that were gained were a phantom; when one looked inside the household data we found instead deterioration in both the employment participation rate and a decline in the absolute number of employed persons, while population rose.  That is, the actual counts (as opposed to black-box statements) said that the labor picture deteriorated in December, contrary to the reported numbers.

This month it was worse.  Far worse.

Let's start with the "base picture" that is causing the cheering:

That nice red line looks good, right?  Well......

"Not in labor force" numbers leaped upward on an annualized basis (seasonally adjusted the "right way") and what's worse on a raw basis 1.572 million people exited the labor force last month.

This is reflected in the percentage of those not in the labor force as a percentage of the working-age population, which hit an all-time high going back to the initiation of the data series I've tracked since 1999:

That's 0.6% of the entire labor force that departed the working population in one month, three times the alleged drop in the unemployment rate.  This means that internally, the numbers were even worse than they first appear!

Indeed, the total number of employed persons fell.  A lot.  To put a number on it, the total number of employed persons fell by 737,000 by actual count.

Now the cheerleaders will state that this is a common thing in January, and indeed it is.  But the correct adjustment is to look at the population increase and subtract that back off as well.  In other words, we take the loss of employment and add the population growth.  When we do this we get a whopping 2.422 million in the wrong direction which was bested only by the -2.618 million in January of 2009 through the process of this downturn!

In fact other than January 2009 there has never been a single month in my table, which dates back to 1999, that put up a worse combined number.  This "performance" rates a literal "second from utter despair and disaster", and the employment rate shows it:

This is not a strong report folks, and in fact documents an actual and ongoing collapse in the US labor force, despite the crooning on the mainstream media disinformation channels!



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: denninger; jobs; jobsreport; ticker; unemployment; unemploymentnumbers

1 posted on 02/03/2012 1:08:27 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Very informative. Sadly, the cheerleaders for ZerO will continue to ignore the facts so they can find an excuse to vote for him again.


2 posted on 02/03/2012 1:20:57 PM PST by MEGoody (Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Jimmy Carter’s job record leading up to his wipeout loss...

Aug: 260,000
Sep: 115,000
Oct: 280,000

And remember, there were only the three liberal networks - all propping up Carter.

Don’t get discouraged. Gas is high. Debt is crushing. Real Estate is a disaster.

Most understand that Obama is a disaster.


3 posted on 02/03/2012 1:22:09 PM PST by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else (Maybe Tim Thomas))
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To: nhwingut

“Don’t get discouraged. Gas is high. Debt is crushing. Real Estate is a disaster.”

I have to believe that nobody’s buying this nonsense that things are getting better; even welfare queens have to gas up their rides. Food stamps lose value as the dollar does (even with the lottery - the Powerball ticket just rose from $1 to $2) - NOBODY is better off than 3 years ago. Obama is toast (regardless of who his opponent is); his last-ditch effort to raise the hopes of a downtrodden public with more promises of freebies is a desperate play by a desperate incompetent. Everyone can see the cost of the “freebies” when they go to the supermarket with their inflated Monopoly money - they ain’t “free”.


4 posted on 02/03/2012 1:29:06 PM PST by kearnyirish2
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To: nhwingut

Yes, but at that time we had RONALD REAGAN running for President. Romney ain’t no Reagan.


5 posted on 02/03/2012 1:29:26 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: nhwingut

You can’t make somebody in the voting booth believe they have a job when they’re unemployed.


6 posted on 02/03/2012 1:31:36 PM PST by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: CaptainK

Exactly what I was thinking. Obama will have unemployment down to 6% at this rate. But no one will have a job.


7 posted on 02/03/2012 1:37:33 PM PST by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else (Maybe Tim Thomas))
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To: SeekAndFind

unemployment charts


8 posted on 02/03/2012 1:38:04 PM PST by TNoldman (AN AMERICAN FOR A MUSLIM/BHO FREE AMERICA.)
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To: MEGoody

The talking heads on CNBC (except Santelli of course) were on an Obama high. Harwood made it sound like Baraq was already re-elected.


9 posted on 02/03/2012 1:41:47 PM PST by nascarnation (DEFEAT BARAQ 2012 DEPORT BARAQ 2013)
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To: SeekAndFind

There can be no doubt we are being lied to on a monumental scale and at ever turn. Is it just me or am I seeing the producers become beat down and hope less? I feel like people are simply going through the motions lots of places as if to say, “What is the use?”

John Gault’s valley is calling.


10 posted on 02/03/2012 1:49:51 PM PST by Sequoyah101 (Half the people are below average.)
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To: SeekAndFind
2010 Census Impact?

I've read that the CLS had earlier stated that this report would be based, for the first time, on 2010 Census data.

Any Freeper that can explain how that would change the data?

11 posted on 02/03/2012 1:50:21 PM PST by LZ_Bayonet ( I AM THE TEA PARTY LEADER !)
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To: nhwingut
Exactly what I was thinking. Obama will have unemployment down to 6% at this rate. But no one will have a job.

Just so. If enough people "drop out" of the economy, we will have ZERO unemployment. And, the MSM will continue to report it as fact.

Hello, we do have other sources of information now.

12 posted on 02/03/2012 1:57:02 PM PST by LibertarianLiz
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To: kearnyirish2

one of the lasting legacies of the Obama Administration will be that nobody in the general public any longer has ANY confidence in economic numbers being put out by the Government.


13 posted on 02/03/2012 2:00:04 PM PST by Buckeye McFrog
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To: aflaak

ping


14 posted on 02/03/2012 2:01:04 PM PST by r-q-tek86 ("It doesn't matter how smart you are if you don't stop and think" - Dr. Sowell)
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To: LZ_Bayonet
I've read that the CLS had earlier stated that this report would be based, for the first time, on 2010 Census data.

Yes. For the first time ever, the 2010 U.S. "Census" used estimated numbers rather than an actual count.

"It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything." - Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili (alias Joseph Stalin).

15 posted on 02/03/2012 2:35:09 PM PST by bIlluminati (Don't just hope for change, work for change in 2011-2012.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

That’s right; now the right will sound like the left-wing conspiracy theorists, because of the conspiracy to run interference for our incompetent affirmative-action president.


16 posted on 02/03/2012 4:06:45 PM PST by kearnyirish2
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