Posted on 02/02/2012 1:17:14 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Rasmussen has a couple of interesting polls out today on the Republican primary race, but none yet in Nevada, which I presume will come tomorrow. Instead, Rasmussen focuses on the Arizona primary that will take place in less than four weeks and act as a springboard for Super Tuesday. Mitt Romney holds a 2-1 lead and almost a majority, 48/24 over Newt Gingrich:
A new telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Arizona shows Romney with 48% support, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich comes in a distant second with 24%. Thirteen percent (13%) prefer former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and six percent (6%) support Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Fifty-three percent (53%) of Arizona GOP primary voters are already certain of their vote, but 42% say they still could change their minds. Six percent (6%) have no initial preference yet. Voters already sure of their vote include 62% of those supporting both Romney and Paul, 48% of Gingrich’s voters and 46% of Santorum’s.
As is the case virtually everywhere else, the economy is the top voting issue for Arizona GOP primary voters. Forty-nine percent (49%) say economic issues are the most important in terms of how they vote, while 24% say fiscal issues like taxes and government spending are the most important. In Arizona, 47% of GOP primary voters rate their personal finances as good or excellent, while 16% rate them as poor. While 20% say their finances are getting better, 51% say they are getting worse.
Romney is seen as the Republican candidate who would do the best job managing the economy by 54% of primary voters in Arizona, while just 22% view Gingrich that way.
There probably isn’t much mystery to dispel from the internals, but let’s take a look anyway. The gender gap is back in a big way for Gingrich in Arizona; Romney beats him among women by 33 points, 51/18. Romney unlocks the “very conservative” demographic in the state, winning by 17, 44/27, and taking majorities in the other two ideological categories. Gingrich has a slight edge among Tea Party backers, 39/33, but loses to Romney by double digits in every religious, age, and income demographic.
The reasons for Gingrich’s problem are familiar. His favorability is relatively low at 55/41, with only 16% having a very favorable impression of the former Speaker. Among women, it’s 49/47. Romney has a 78/21 favorability rating. Only Ron Paul does worse than Gingrich at 34/61, while Santorum does nicely at 63/29. On personal character, Romney takes 44% of the respondents, Santorum comes in second at 34%, while Gingrich comes in last at 7%.
Could this change? There is only one debate on the schedule, but it will be in Arizona, six days before the primary. Michigan will hold its primary on the same day as Arizona, so Gingrich may choose to split his time or default in Michigan, where Romney will undoubtedly be strong. However, Gingrich probably can’t win by going negative, not with personal ratings like these, so unless he uncorks a beauty of a performance in that debate, he’s going to get buried. Meanwhile, Romney gets 57% of the voters who say they’ve made up their minds, and 44% of those who could still change, while Gingrich gets 22% and 30%, respectively.
In Rasmussen’s daily presidential tracking poll, Barack Obama ends up in virtual dead heats with three of the four Republicans in the race. Guess which one Obama beats outside of the MOE?
In potential Election 2012 matchups, it’s President Obama 46% and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 45%. However, if former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the Republican nominee, the president holds an eight point lead, 49% to 41% (see tracking history). These matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Rick Santorum trails the president by two points, 46% to 44%. Ron Paul trails by three, 45% to 42%.
What the H is going on? even Rush was slamming RomObama over the min wage today. Who are these so called conservatives? have we really lost America’s very heart and soul? and the constitutionalists? conservatives? Romney is buying the Whitehouse! please explain how any informed voter could support this rino? “Romney unlocks the “very conservative” demographic in the state, winning by 17, 44/27, and taking majorities in the other two ideological categories. Gingrich has a slight edge among Tea Party backers, 39/33, but loses to Romney by double digits in every religious, age, and income demographic.Romney unlocks the “very conservative” demographic in the state, winning by 17, 44/27, and taking majorities in the other two ideological categories. Gingrich has a slight edge among Tea Party backers, 39/33, but loses to Romney by double digits in every religious, age, and income demographic.
Many people are self-described “very conservative” types, but you or I may consider them merely “conservative” or even “moderate”. A “conservative” guy in Arizona might be a Mississippi “liberal” and so on.
This poll merely indicates that Romney is by far considered more electable than Gingrich.
Is this the same Arizona that keeps sending John McCain back to the Senate? Why am I not surprised.
If Newt can get any coverage at all it will be a miracle, from here on out.
His message alone keeps the Rebellion alive nationally.
Otherwise, rebellion has to decide whether we rebelers will rebel on election day.
1. Write in instead, and hand it to Obama
2. Don’t vote but down ticket, and hand it to Obama
3. Vote for Romno-money, and hand it to Obama
What, where, when is the actual REBELLION? I’m starting to wonder.
Rasmussen called me last night and asked extensive questions. I said I was voting for Newt, but I gave highest marks to Paul on the economy, Newt on foreign policy, and Santorum on social issues.
There are a lot of conservatives out there who simply are not confident Gingrich can beat Obama, that Romney has a better chance and is the lesser of two evils. They're supporting Romney only to get rid of Obama.
Newt has been out of the press except for the Trump mess for the last couple of days. Newt says that he was going to be holding press conferences all week but nothing has come of it. He said he was going to release a 21st century Contract with America this week but nothing. Newt needs to get out to the press and do something. That is what people are waiting for.
It is a herd mentality and all the cowards are lining up on who the media is telling them who can beat Obozo. It is more driven by fear more than anything.
RitaOK, I will vote for other issues and canididates in my state but am adamant...NO ROMNEY! I detest that man and if I posted my true thoughts I would be nuked from FR...so on Romney may I just say “ #$&^%*%#@”!
women are easily fooled by a slick talking used car salesman type guy apparently, and are holding a grudge against Gingrich because of his past. Women apparently don't believe in forgiveness and redemption.
There was a time when I loved Fox News and found them a refreshing alternative to the msm. Their ratings soared because so many others shared my feelings and wanted the truth to come out...Rush has made a multi million dollar business by presenting the conservative views. What happened? Fox has become Faux and Coulter has become a rino. I just dont get it. Rush is still on our side but has weakened somewhat lately. I just ca’t sell my soul and vote for Romney and that is how I would feel...he is way too close to Obama. What happened to the America I knew and loved? will we ever be able to save this country...looks bleak
There was a time when I loved Fox News and found them a refreshing alternative to the msm. Their ratings soared because so many others shared my feelings and wanted the truth to come out...Rush has made a multi million dollar business by presenting the conservative views. What happened? Fox has become Faux and Coulter has become a rino. I just dont get it. Rush is still on our side but has weakened somewhat lately. I just ca’t sell my soul and vote for Romney and that is how I would feel...he is way too close to Obama. What happened to the America I knew and loved? will we ever be able to save this country...looks bleak
The question answers itself. To a person, every Romney supporter I've talked to knows almost nothing about Romney's history, votes, or governorship. ALMOST NOTHING!
It's flabbergasting. Even some of my own relatives were thinking about supporting Romney -- without knowing anything about his liberal record.
But ask these same people where they get their information about Romney and they'll be happy to explain: Fox News or any other MSM alphabet network.
America is screwed.
just like my post right above yours
Women apparently don’t believe in forgiveness and redemption.
Looks like women relate too much to being burned by an unfaithful spouse...no fury, etc. Women decide elections as well, and Romney’s faithfulness to his wife apparently overrides his liberal past.
I won’t say here that women shouldn’t vote, but....
As Shakespeare says: "Brevity is the soul of wit."
The best option for conservatives to do is this if Myth gets the GOP nomination:
1)Vote for a consensus conservative with a write-in for POTUS (i.e. Gingrich, Santorum)This is the protest vote to get in the face of the GOP establishment.
2)Vote straight GOP undercard for House & Senate.
What you aim to get is strong GOP majorities in the house and senate and Obuggery with a razor thin victory for POTUS.
It creeps me to say it but Mccain is probably helping Romney out more than anything else.
Otherwise,Brewer doesn’t seem like she would endorse Romney?
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