Interesting. It would be my belief that we would see a mix of those; some people vote for the Newt, others vote for Mitts, and others stay home.
It all depends on how much of the religous conservative vote San is getting. I would actually expect Mitt to get more votes from Santorum than Gingrich. Romney seems to be the nicer canidate and had been staying above the fray, for all his faults he seems to be the most electable.
I doubt the evengelical vote will go to Ron Paul, so the question becomes does it go to the nice carsalesman in a nice suit with a nice haircut, or philanderer who openly has disparaged the other canidates and has said he would not vote for one of them if they indeed become the canidate (even as much as I distaste Ron Paul).
For all the talk Gingrich is giving about going for a brokered convention he really seems to be intent on alienating the other canidates with his antics.
HIS antics? You mean all the attack ads in Iowa that were flat out lies?
Oh wait. That was Romney.
You mean all the attack ads in Florida that were flat out lies?
Oh wait. That was Romney.
You mean all the attack ads that look like Romney's in Nevada?
Oh wait. That's Santorum.