We are not a nation of 50 equal states in the Electoral College. Delaware has 3 electoral votes. California 55.
With the Electoral College, and federalism, the Founding Fathers meant to empower the states to pursue their own interest within the confines of the Constitution. The National Popular Vote is an exercise of that power, not an attack upon it.
With the current state winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes, winning a bare plurality of the popular vote in the 11 most populous states, containing 56% of the population, could win the Presidency with a mere 26% of the nation’s votes.
But the 11 largest states rarely agree on any political question. In terms of recent presidential elections, the 11 largest states include five “red states (Texas, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia) and six “blue” states (California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey). The fact is that the big states are just about as closely divided as the rest of the country. For example, among the four largest states, the two largest Republican states (Texas and Florida) generated a total margin of 2.1 million votes for Bush, while the two largest Democratic states generated a total margin of 2.1 million votes for Kerry.
Among the 11 most populous states in 2004, the highest levels of popular support, hardly overwhelming, were found in the following seven non-battleground states:
* Texas (62% Republican),
* New York (59% Democratic),
* Georgia (58% Republican),
* North Carolina (56% Republican),
* Illinois (55% Democratic),
* California (55% Democratic), and
* New Jersey (53% Democratic).
In addition, the margins generated by the nation’s largest states are hardly overwhelming in relation to the 122,000,000 votes cast nationally. Among the 11 most populous states, the highest margins were the following seven non-battleground states:
* Texas — 1,691,267 Republican
* New York — 1,192,436 Democratic
* Georgia — 544,634 Republican
* North Carolina — 426,778 Republican
* Illinois — 513,342 Democratic
* California — 1,023,560 Democratic
* New Jersey — 211,826 Democratic
To put these numbers in perspective, Oklahoma (7 electoral votes) alone generated a margin of 455,000 “wasted” votes for Bush in 2004 — larger than the margin generated by the 9th and 10th largest states, namely New Jersey and North Carolina (each with 15 electoral votes). Utah (5 electoral votes) alone generated a margin of 385,000 “wasted” votes for Bush in 2004. 8 small western states, with less than a third of California’s population, provided Bush with a bigger margin (1,283,076) than California provided Kerry (1,235,659).
Now that you mention that, I'm recalling that the inequality that you refer to is a changing thing.
The Constitution requires an enumeration of the population every 10 years. The Electoral College votes of each state constantly changes.
The National Popular Vote compact has no language that I saw that addresses what happens when compacting states reapportion such that they no longer comprise a majority of Electoral College votes.
To me, this would invalidate the entire effort so far, as states that already passed the compact would no longer have passed the bill that was presented, notwithstanding the language of "in substantially the same form." Exclusion of the impacts of apportionment is certainly "substantial."
Furthermore, the severability language "If any provision of this agreement is held invalid, the remaining provisions shall not be affected," will not apply in reverse to the instatiating provision of first attaining a compact of state comprising a majority of Electoral College votes, and then losing the justification for the initiating of the provisions in the first place.
You do have the provision "This agreement shall terminate if the electoral college is abolished." This could be revised to say that the agreement shall terminate also when the compact loses the majority of Electoral College votes, but that would make it a substantially different bill which would require it to be repassed in the Several States that already passed it.
Or... you can plan for the court challenges that would follow.
-PJ
Arguing for a purely popular vote is nonsense, it is completely at odds with the founding fathers intent and desires. Smaller states are statistically OVER REPRESENTED by design in the system to keep larger states in check. To argue otherwise is mathmatically, and historically ignorant.