The polls are designed to cause a belief that Romney has a better chance of beating Obama, so the people will prefer Romney over all the other GOP candidates. But there is no way Romney beats Obama, and the GOP doesn't care.
The Republican elite is not harmed by Obama's presidency, it benefits from it. Same (status quo) under Romney. So, from their perspective, Romney is a win-win candidate.
Three guesses who loses.
That be where were we diverge, I think regardless of who wins the Republican nomination, they will also win the general as the seemingly capped Democrat anxiety(think Carvelle and Cadell) swells underneath the surface, the difference will be to get enough Senate and House seats and carry out a conservative agenda, I see Newt as being more able as the message he has conveyed during this campaign echos well everywhere...