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To: Steelfish
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online surveys but this poll of 732 likely voters has a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. GINGRICH STRONGER IN HEAD-TO-HEAD Conservatives are still somewhat splintered. The poll found that Gingrich and Romney would be virtually tied if Santorum and Paul dropped out of the race. Romney would win by 50 percent to 48 percent if the race were just between him and Gingrich.

The above is the fine print. First, it appears to be an online poll. They say that the issue isn't error but credibility. The problem with online polls, imho, is that the respondents self-select. That makes those people responding other than random.

Notice in the other part of this that no one is suggesting that Paul drop out. No one expects him to. Santorum dropping out, though, is discussed. If that were to happen, those numbers would go to Gingrich. It is Paul who has the younger, more liberal followers who would go to Romney.

If Santorum drops out, and it isn't like that Paul would, then Gingrich would be helped.

10 posted on 01/27/2012 7:11:17 PM PST by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Pray Continued Victory for our Troops Still in Afghan!)
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To: xzins

I’m not so sure. There are a lot of Santorum supporters who support him, even though they know he won’t likely win and Gingrich might. Why are they supporting Santorum? Likely because they can’t bring themselves to support Gingrich. But at least they still have a conservative they can support.

I guess some of them would force themselves to support Gingrich, IF there were no other choice. But some would probably just support Romney because they couldn’t bring themselves to support Gingrich. Others would support Paul. And some will just not vote at all.

Just look at the freepers. How many Santorum supporters got banned because they violated the rules about attacking Gingrich? YOu think they will vote for Newt if Santorum drops out?

Heck, half the Perry supporters went to Santorum, even though Perry endorsed Gingrich.


16 posted on 01/27/2012 7:44:00 PM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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