New 'Big One' forecast: four years (Tokyo Earthquake)

The Japan Times ^ | Jan. 24, 2012 | via Kyodo

[Ronin]

The risk of the southern Kanto region including Tokyo being hit by a major temblor within the next four years could be as high as about 70 percent, according to a study compiled by Monday by a team of researchers at the University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute.

The figure is the same as the 70 percent forecast given for a magnitude 7.0 temblor hitting the region in the ambiguous "next 30 years" that has been repeatedly issued by the government's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion on the basis of intervals between large quakes in the past.

Naoshi Hirata, a professor at the institute and a member of the team, said the risk of a big quake may have risen due to the 9.0-magnitude earthquake that hit in March 2011 off the Tohoku region, spawning tsunami that wiped out wide stretches of the coast.

Since the March disaster, seismic activity has been intensifying in the southern Kanto region and quakes with a magnitude of more than 3.0 have occurred about five times more frequently than in usual years.

[Ronin]

Earthquake predictions are not worth much, but still...

I dunno. The last quake aged my bones by about a full decade. Another one, this time right under me...

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[who_would_fardels_bear]

All those heavy SUV's driving all over the place squishing down the ground.

It's only a matter of time before Mother Nature pushes back!

[musicman]

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[JSteff]

"could be as high as "

Way to nail down that prediction....

[onedoug]

It´s good to be prepared. But as Charles Richter, one of the pioneers of seismology once said:
¨Only idiots and liars predict earthquakes.¨

[lefty-lie-spy]

You wimp. I haven’t had a thrill like that since I jumped out of an airplane. Bring it on. These buildings are tough enough for a little 7.0. Now a 9.0 directly under Tokyo might have me pooping my britches.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Good point. Like, what can you do about it? You might flee here, and end up dying in a plane crash just going to areas where they have less earthquakes. Been through a 9.0. Not pretty, but I believe I can stand a 7.0 and there are castrophes and human made disasters all around the globe these days. One just has to follow one’s heart.