Ok, so you are a social conservative, and by that mark Santorum is probably the closest to that from day one.
However, he was always the strongest social conservative from day one. Yet he had no support until just before the end in Iowa.
Santorum will likely be down to single digits by Florida, or shortly there after. At best he’s playing spoiler at this point. Though if Gingrich keeps his momentum, even that won’t be true.
We have very different views on effective candidates, some believe find the one closest to your beliefs and stick to them, while that is noble, it is also not very effective. If you don’t win, it doesn’t matter.. sad but true fact of Politics.
Now, these are my opinions, and mine alone and they are going to differ greatly from yours, so, lets just agree to disagree before we get into any flaming.
Cain & Bachmann were political jokes in my opinion, Bachmann comes across as a shrew, and her political hyperbole is so over the top that it makes Newts most outlandish statements during his heyday of Hyperbole seem mild by comparison. She plays a populist bent by screaming what people what to hear, regardless of the truth to the statement. A good foot soldier perhaps, but not a good leader.
What you consider an asset for Cain (absolutely no political experience) is in fact to me a rediculous liability. I would never go out to hire someone to do a job with zero experience in the field, EVER, not in any field of endeavor I have or will ever engage in.. other than an entry level job, and while we may not see eye to eye, I think we can agree, that the highest and most powerful political job on the planet is not an “entry level position”. Some will say,he has business experience, and I say, so what. I’ve worked in Business and with Government, and what makes an effective Business Leader, does not remotely make a good Political Leader. Business Leaders have the luxury of saying JUMP and those below them say HOW HIGH.. that is not how it works in government, not even close. Cain would have been a disaster had he made it to the White House, and he wasn’t going to make it there. He was an affiable enough fellow with a one hit wonder, that he drove into the ground, but did not have the skills or capacity to run a campaign, let alone the executive branch of government. We alread have a neophyte incompetent at 1600 PA Avenue, I am not going to send another one there, just because this one has an R beside his name.
Perry, he at least has a track record, and some executive exprerience. However, he wasn’t up to the task, which became blidingly obvious during the debates.
Santorum, with santorum, as a constituent of his during his political career, I can tell you, he is far more liked outside of PA than he is inside, and there is a reason for that, and its not simply because of his Spectre endorcement, as many here claim. Yes, he is probably the most socially conservative of the class of 2012, but he’s also not all that politically astute, very little charisma, and has shown that he can’t handle a tough campaign. He lost PA not only by a large margin, but lost it to a virtual no show of an oponent, he was effectively defined as extreme, and honestly never ever offered an effective counter to the criticism of him, and that was in a state race where far less effort and energy to destroy him was spent than will be spent against the Republican in the coming Presidential battle. Santorum, certainly is a social conservative, but he doesn’t have the intellect or ability to articulate the conservative viewpoint effectively. He alienated those that he needed politically by repeated actions over his tenure, hes NOT a fiscal conservative in the lease, he can’t articulate the conservative philosphy, because he doesn’t believe in it. He’s not a raging liberal obviously, but he is not a “get out of my wallet and get off my back” conservative. For those reasons and others, I see no way he can win a national campaign.
This leaves the field with Romney, who sucks, but is a “safe” candidate, he’s not going to offend anyone.. he looks presidential, stands for little if anything, and has name recognition etc etc. Can he win a general election? Yes he can, especially when put against the most incompetent administration of the last 60 years at least. Will he be a great president if he wins? Nope, budgets will continue to expand, social liberalism and nanny state will continue to grow, government intrusion will continue to move forward, just at a slower pace.
And Newt. Newt may have his problems, and yes he may not be as small government ideologically pure as many would like, but Newt has the experience, intellect, and frankly nads to take it to Obama, and make the election a true ideological choice, not simply a turd sandwhich vs deuchebag competition. In fact, he’s the only candidate who has been focusing on OBAMA from day one, not sniping at other republicans.. Yes, he has put out negative ads after Romney released the hounds, but his message when he speaks is still about BEATING LIBERALISM and OBAMA< and offering exact, real plans to effect that if elected. He is without question the smartest guy in the room, and will make the election an ideological decision, not just a who’s the lesser of two crapholes.
I see a Romney V Obama matchup of being 45-55 Romney, or in that ballpark range, and a Gingrich v Obama being a 40-60 range. That’s a “safe” candidate vs a failed Presidency, with no major wave making etc. When articulating the philosophical differences, and contrasting them, forcing a decision of record and beliefs, it will easily gain a 5 point swing to the Republican. The electoral map won’t break down as bad as other elections due to population distributions, but the electoral disaster waiting the democrats if Newt is the nominee hasn’t been seen in a long long time.. and frankly if Newt doesn’t have a temper losing event, and keeps the debate and pressure on and at the ideological record level, Obama will likely not even get 40% of the vote. IMHO.
2008 was more of a repudiation of Bush, than an endorcement of Obama... and Obama was a joke of a candidate who offered nothing but essoteric rhetoric and a minority face. That’s not going to be 2012.. The repudiation of this administration, barring something completely unforseen and massive is going to be insane, if someone like Newt were to be the nominee.
Obviously the future isn’t written, and time will tell.
Couple things here - I’m not going to flame anyone for supporting Newt and rejecting Santorum. Ok? You asked for my honest beliefs and I gave you them - I can only expect honesty in return.
“Yet he had no support until just before the end in Iowa.”
Cain was close, Bachmann was close as well. When you have three pretty solid social conservatives together - especially when Cain was stronger on the fiscal side, most of the support would go to them, not Santorum.
“Bachmann comes across as a shrew, and her political hyperbole is so over the top that it makes Newts most outlandish statements during his heyday of Hyperbole seem mild by comparison. She plays a populist bent by screaming what people what to hear, regardless of the truth to the statement. A good foot soldier perhaps, but not a good leader.”
I greatly disagree with this characterisation, and I think it’s quite unfair to her, and her positions. I don’t see her as a joke candidate at all.
“What you consider an asset for Cain (absolutely no political experience) is in fact to me a rediculous liability”
And this is the great divide. The system is in trouble right now. Why would I hire an insider to clean things up? See, the business world doesn’t do this. When they want an impartial inventory done or an audit - they seek an outsider to conduct it. I’ve done them for other businesses. You want to clean up the system - you hire someone who’s not a part of it.
“would never go out to hire someone to do a job with zero experience in the field, EVER, not in any field of endeavor”
Again, it’s a question of what you are looking for. Are you looking for political experience, or are you looking for executive experience? Only Perry has more than Cain who’s been a CEO for many years.
“We alread have a neophyte incompetent at 1600 PA Avenue”
Look at their resumes. Cain was a ballistics mathematician in the Navy. You’re saying he would be incompetent at his job? I would love to see someone who actually can do math at the helm trying to get the budget balanced, spending under control, fixing the economy.
“However, he wasn’t up to the task, which became blidingly obvious during the debates.”
How many debates does a president conduct?
“He lost PA not only by a large margin, but lost it to a virtual no show of an oponent”
I suggest you check out Bob Casey Sr. He was a solidly prolife democrat. There’s a reason that the Dems ran Casey Jr against Santorum and it isn’t because they are the stupid party.
See, here’s what I don’t get - why is a debate considered an essential tool for a president? You don’t conduct debates as a president. Seems to me executive experience - knowing how to find good people and put them in the right places is by far the best experience you can have. That - and having the right positions.
Newt doesn’t strike me as significantly more fiscally conservative than Santorum. They both have been part of the system for a long time.