Posted on 01/19/2012 8:11:37 PM PST by BCrago66
The Intrade investors are (unlike Newt supporters such as myself) unsentimental, and for the first time in the run-up to the South Carolina primary, their collective assessment has Newt as the favorite, with a 57.5% chance of winning. Even earlier today, after all the favorable morning & afternoon polls came out, Newt was only at about 42%.
What made the difference? A couple candidates:
1) Yet another PPP poll came out about 1/2 hour ago, including polling done this very night, showing Gingrich maintaining his 6 point lead.
2) Santorum's attack Chiwawa routine at the CNN debate tonight drew some blood re Romney, but mostly damaged Santorum himself, and will, IMHO, accelerate the South Carolina voter exodus from Santorum to Gingrich.
(Excerpt) Read more at intrade.com ...
he got creamed on his rerun
“And Rick is too darn nice.”
If only. Everyone else seems to think he’s a whiny brat with no sense of humor.
Unless you were referring to Rick Perry but he dropped out.
That makes two of us!:)
I think your comments are reasonable. One thing to consider, though: 3 or 4 million will come in within 48 hours of Newt’s SC win, sufficient to compete in Florida. The if Newt wins Florida, he gets another few million. Gingrich will never have Romney-money, but enough to compete.
Huh?
“he got creamed on his rerun”
yes but he served 2 terms as Senator. Romney was only governor for 4.
Newt was just a congressman and while the House picked him to be Speaker, his tenure was only for 4 years.
Frankly today was discouraging for me. First, I have been a Perry supporter from his announcement. I really thought he would easily win the nomination, and beat Obama.
I know many will disagree with me, but the Newt Ex-Wife story IS going to hurt him. Maybe mortally.
Romney has his own issues, and the tax return will dog him from this point onwards.
Santorum, just crashed and burned tonite.
And a 3rd party Paul campaign is becoming more likely.
Seems like a circular republican firing squad. I am not sure any of them can beat Obama now.
Anyway, I am depressed on the state of the nomination process. None of them are very strong IMO. But I will support the eventual nominee. Even though none of them are perfect or even close to what I want in a candidate, the risk of 4 years of Obama is too great. The Supreme court balance could be at stake. I’d rather have Romney or Newt or even Paul selecting the next SC nominee than Obama. Could destroy us for a generation. Thats what is at stake and why I am bummed I guess.
I think all of our candidates are flawed. The media is just now starting with the Newt thing. This one is going to be ugly.
“His demeanor was amateurish - whiny, angry and just unlikable.”
I agree with this comment, not just in this debate, but throughout the debates. There was one, around the time of the Iowa caucus, where he seemed more relaxed and likable, but for the most part he has come across to me as you have described. The best, in terms of demeanor, have struck me as Gingrich and Romney. I think Paul’s demeanor is pretty positive overall, but he has a nervous laugh (don’t know if “nervous” is the right word, but a laugh which seems out of place) which I think diminishes his stature.
Of course, these things don’t seem like they should be the most important, but I think they make a big difference to much of the American populace, who don’t really know or follow political issues.
One thing I missed from your comment. I don’t know of any other state besides VA in which Newt failed to get on the ballot. There’s MO but that’s a “beauty contest,” with no delegates at stake. If you know otherwise, please tell us the state.
Santorum’s poll numbers increasing? Great.
In fact VERY good; I’d like to see Santorum as a conender.
That notiwithstandintg get his & Newts numbers up; its contrary to the Obambster.
IF either tank, then go all out FOR Ron Paul: LIE LIKE A FREAKIN’ RUG and put your heart into it. You believe the lying lame-stream media aint?
Can you imagine what the result of a Ron Paul leading delegate at the convention sockdolager would be to the GOP? What the heck would that do to the Dem’s?
Hi, little boy (or girl)! Would you like some candy? Come closer to my van so I can give it to you...
Do you believe Democrat operative community organizers are have greater moral integrity than that? Right, I forgot that most people don’t know ‘bout Bill Ayers.
You keep saying that, Steelfish, and it just isn’t true. How many women do YOU know that like whiny, spiteful, petty little men?
That’s Hugh Hewitt’s program in a nutshell too. 100% pro Romney and very anti-Gingrich. He’s even got Mark Steyn on attacking Newt. Not disappointed in Hewitt because he’s always been a luke warm Republican and a shill for the establishment, but very disappointed in Mark Steyn to join in on the attack. I want Gingrich to win because I think he’s the best out of the field that’s been presented to us, but it would be so sweet to have Hewitt’s man go down in flames. Hewitt (along with Mr. Potatohead Rove) thoroughly cheesed me off when he continued his absolute hatred for Tancredo in the 2010 governor’s race here in CO and supported Dan Maes who had absolutely no chance of winning. Now we are stuck with Chickenlooper as our governor thanks to idiots like him. Glad to see SC seems to not be playing the establishment’s game.
Seriesly.
Hammer EVERYBODY on the 80% that Ron Paul is good for.
I believe that this election is how we let the GOP know what is up.
Ron Paul gets 10% of the electorate - imagine that - consider the implications that would have on the Newt (or Mitt) VP nomination? What about going forward, who possibly could be cabinet post appointee's?
Then there's the Congressional/Gubernatorial/State legislative races that were so hotly landslided all across the county last time.
I'm saying lets give these dick-heads a sock of "courage" into their trembling lips come this November 2012.
I agree that Santorum’s closing was strong. He’s better, imho, when he uses a blue collar populist appeal.
Piers Morgan (a scumbag) really seems to like Santorum for some reason, so expect a decent performance by Santorum.
But, how many watches that show anyhow?
Intrade puts Obama at 52% to win the general election.
Obama has been above 50% for three consecutive months, and above 50% for 12 of the last 14 months.
Polls from South Carolina has shown that the main factor behind the Newt surge was the Fox debate perforance, not media
buys. This indicates that Newt is less reliant on a massive war chest than other candidates.
Gingrich himself pointed this out last night as a strength when taking on Obama this autumn.
That's a great question, CainCon.
I completely forgot to check.
Can't find any info on InTrade’s website, nothing on Google, nothing on Wiki.
Usually the fine print specifics of the bet are posted on the betting page, but the betting page is gone.
I'll guess that InTrade waited for the Certification and paid off on Santorum.
That's a guess, though.
I guessed wrong.
Found an InTrade Trader Forum.
Romney was declared the winner and all bets were settled on that night.
InTrade has a page some place that lists all their rules on elections, but I still can't find it.
The base doesn't want Romney-period.
Bttt!
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