” While you could argue that it’s crossover voting, I think that’s just denial.”
Well, I think that could be more significant than you might think. Remember Rush’s Operation Chaos in ‘08? That represented untold thousands in the primaries. The left has no incentive NOT to cross over this year; they’re dedicated (and organized) to re-anoint BHO - including trying to insure that the weakest possible candidate ends up running against him.
But exact numbers aside, as long as conservatives remain divided among 3-4 candidates (albeit some un-electable ones), that’s how Romney keeps winning even though polls show he only has about 25% total support. With the other 75% scattered, Mittens slides by.
Newt can defeat BHO if he’s allowed to get to the general. But with Ron Paul screwing things up, Newt badly needs Perry/Santorum voters. They’re both good people, but neither can get the large spectrum of voters outside the primaries - Perry reminds too many of GW, Santorum’s viewed as too extreme (by non-Repubs and a fair amount of GOP), and neither are adroit enough to go up against BHO and the media’s dirty tactics.
I agree with your analysis.
I’ve said for a year that Dems in open primary states are going to make Mitty the nominee.
They know he’s the one most likely to produce a Tea Party challenger on the ballot in most red states, leading to a Clintonian plurality win for Baraq.
“But with Ron Paul screwing things up, Newt badly needs Perry/Santorum voters.”
And none of them want to be the one that takes the hit for the team.
In the long run, this will be a two horse race between Ron Paul and mitt. Both of them will go until the convention. Newt will probably stay in the longest, but his funding will be what runs out. He may want to continue the fight, but people generally won’t fund what they perceive to be a loser.