With regard thet states, I think that Santorum could carry New Mexico, albeit it narrowly. Running mates could tip a state one way or the other, too. If a certain running mate is chosen, perpahs Nevada, Colorado, and even Minnesota could be tipped to our side if Santorum is the nominee and he does everything right.
There’s a reason I didn’t give any GOP candidate New Mexico... and that’s entirely due to now-Libertarian Gary Johnson. Johnson may get 10-15% of the vote there. Zero will probably get in the low 40s, maybe even 45%, but any of our guys may only get around 40%. Absent Johnson, we might get a 2004-style victory there. Ironically, this might help our GOP nominee for Senator there (presuming the Libertarian candidate is a desultory one). I can’t quite see MN coming to us, though.