Posted on 01/15/2012 9:17:23 PM PST by VinL
An exclusive InsiderAdvantage poll released Sunday night shows GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney gaining in his lead in the South Carolina primary while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is holding steady in second place.
In the poll of 720 likely registered voters in South Carolina GOP Primary, Romney was leading with 32 percent of the vote. Gingrich was second with 21 percent followed by Ron Paul with 14 percent.
The rundown:
* Romney: 32% * Gingrich: 21% * Paul: 14% * Santorum: 13% * Huntsman: 6% * Perry: 5% * Other: 2% * Undecided/ No opinion: 7%
“The poll is among likely voters who are registered in South Carolina and are likely to vote in the Republican contest. The survey is weighted for age, race, and gender,” said InsiderAdvantage chief pollster Matt
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Perry is seemingly tied with Stephen Colbert in S. Carolina.
It appears to me that we have no agreement whatsoever, even to what kind of man is a slime ball.
“But don’t expect sympathy when you realize what you have contributed to.”
No sympathy will be needed because your scenario isn’t going to happen. Obama will lose to ANY Republican candidate, any of them, including Romney. Obama is toast. And, just IMHO, I think it will be next to a landslide of disapproval of Obama’s regime. So, I don’t believe your scenario, and you probably won’t believe mine; however, time will tell. I’d be willing to bet on my scenario being the correct one.
All the squabbling on this thread about who should drop out when you all know very well that at least as far as SC goes, no one will drop out (not counting Huntsman, who doesn’t count anyway). Now FL is i different subject. Depending on the results in SC, there is the possibility that the lowest man on the totem pole (probably Perry), might drop out. I doubt that Santorum or Gingrich would drop out however. We’ll know the answer in 6 more days.
I don’t want to bet, but I’ll be willing to pray.
What would you call a man who was the Texas chair for Al Gore but switched party only because Karl Rove convinced him he could get higher office by doing so? A man who is more pro Mexico than he is pro US?
You have all the qualifications to become the official historian for Bizarro World.
This is discouraging.
Well I do have some knowledge but you give me too much credit. Perry chairing the state committee for Gore is Bizarro I agree.
It’s a runaway for Newt if Perry and Santorum drop out.
It’s a runaway for Newt if Perry and Santorum drop out.
I agree. Newt is ahead over night if Santorum and Perry drop out, but they’re not. Santorum will stay in thru FL also. Perry will drop out after SC.
So that will leave going into FL Romney, Paul, Santorum and Newt.
I am praying that Newt stays in this until it’s just him and Romney toe to toe, which may mean until March. If Santorum stays in that long, then folks let’s face it, he’s in it to let Romney win.
Santourm went after Newt last week, which makes no sense.
It’s simply not possible for Romney to win. The “swiftboating” of Romney that would occur, or should I say “Bainboating,” would make what was thrown at Kerry look like pixie dust compared to an epic mudslide. Even if Romney did nothing wrong, the tarnishing they would be able to do to him based on the layoffs at and mismanagement of the firms under Bain would be enough to fatally smear him. But the reality is that Romney abused the financial system to make his profits at Bain. They took out loans on firms that went bankrupt and were able to keep all the money for themselves due to sleazy accounting gimmicks and a corporate shell game.
Once the voters hear this explained clearly, and repeatedly, by the mainstream media, the level of mistrust that will surround Romney will be devastating. The Democrats may have to start a few months before the election because this is a lot to explain and can be a little confusing. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the Republicans end up trying to get Romney to stand down if there’s enough time before the election and replace him with another candidate. At a certain point it will become abundantly clear that Romney will lose in a landslide like he did to Ted Kennedy in 1994 and will end up taking Republican control of the House down with him.
I hope you're right FL47. I pray you are right. I am of the opinion that Obama will not be as easy to defeat as some people think. He has a core constituency (around 45%) that will vote for a Democrat president no matter what, he has the full support of most of the media (and those that do not support him overtly do not seem to be attacking him), he has an effective campaign network/machinery, and he has the largest financial war-chest of any incumbent in history. Add to this the fact that for the most part the GOP/Conservatives are not only divided, but moreover they have also become largely dogmatic (e.g. whereby some supporters of Candidate A refuse to support Candidate B due to technicalities ...for instance there is no reason that Romney should be the front-runner, but due to the divide-and-rule dynamic you see Conservative votes split which leads to Romney and Paul sticking out ...in reality both Romney and Paul should not even be noticeable).
However, that is not the main reason I fear Obama has a chance. The main reason stems from the same argument I made in 2008. That FreeRepublic is a Closed-Loop system, and due to this it gives a false sense of security.
In 2008 I warned that there was a chance that Obama would be elected. Several FReepers 'corrected' me that he had 'no chance' because they 'knew no one' who would vote for him, their friends wouldn't vote for him, their family absolutely abhorred him, and even at their workplace no one supported him apart from 'that crazy guy.' I tried to tell them that chances are their family would think the same way they did (hence if they didn't like Obama, or pro-wrestling, or rap videos, or Hitler's left toe) there was a preponderance of probability that their family wouldn't either. Same thing with friends (actually more so than family even) because we chose our friends based on certain markers that are aligned, and thus it means chances are your political affiliations are similar if not the same. Same thing with a workplace ...the similarity is not as close as for friends and family, but there are proven lines of similarity for the most part. Thus the comparison to a closed-loop system. This by the way is one reason why Rick Perry supporters are in shock that people are 'not seeing' what a great candidate he is. They have been surrounded by people who supported Governor Perry and were shocked at why others were not acting as expected. Why they couldn't see what a clear choice the Governor was. A good example of this can be seen by checking out that FR thread where people thought Perry would leave the race after losing badly in NH (the one he was saying he would retreat back to Texas to think about things). Perry is a good man with a good record in Texas, and for a number of reasons (some totally his fault to be honest, others 'helped' along by the media) his campaign lost track late last year.
FR is a closed-loop system. A powerful closed-loop system. For one people here are conservatives, secondly they are interested in politics. We have a propensity to think in similar ways (whether we believe it or not), support similar characters (there are differences between Gingrich, Santorum and Perry; but the similarities are also there), and believe in similar attributes (whether or not you are a fiscal conservative, social conservative, or both, there are certain markers that are very similar).
We may believe Obama is toast. After all, no one on FR would vote for him, and his popularity has taken a nose dive since he got elected. The economy has not gone well, and he is not longer the Golden Child Messiah lefties thought he would be. That means he is toast, right?
Not necessarily. The only way Obama will be toast is if Conservatives come out in force and vote. If they get behind one candidate VERY SOON, and ensure Romney doesn't get the nomination. Then, once that conservative candidate is chosen, support him in every way possible because he will most definitely need it going against the Obama campaign machine. I know many think Obama is an empty suit ...but I don't know many empty suits that can become president of the United States with absolutely zero record and a hidden history. That is quite an amazing 'empty suit.' Oh well, yes ...that was not Obama but rather his puppeteer masters. Ok, same thing though! He has puppeteer masters who were able to put an empty suit with zero record and a hidden history into the most powerful political position on Earth! Puppeteer masters who have a war chest of almost 1 billion Dollars (puts the $17 million Dollar war-chest Perry had at his prime in grim perspective).
I totally believe Obama can be beaten, but I do not think it will be as easy as people think it will be. Particularly considering how fractured Conservatives/Republicans are.
Work will need to be done to beat him. Without work, and with the campaign machinery Obama has, the support of the media, the fact that stories are already circulating of how the economy has started to 'improve,' the lack of the One True Candidate for Conservatives (that has led to jokes like Romney and Paul making waves), and a split between the GOP Establishments and Tea Partiers ...with all of that I really hope you are right FL47.
I pray you are.
Your post about Obama being defeated is definitely NOT a fait accompli is spot on.
Another factor in the Dems’ favor is the vote fraud in the major cities across the country which they control.
There are many states where, apart from the major cities, a Dem would not have a chance.
That is why the Dems are fighting voter ID laws across the board.
Only about half the people who could vote actually DO vote.
We will need every vote we can muster in November to counter the very real and very powerful forces arrayed against us and against America.
Said it before... If not Newt, it will be Mitt...
Looks like it’s going to be Mitt. We can thank Iowa for that.
All candidates for president have big egos. Santorum dropping out for the good of the conservative cause isn’t going to happen. His clingers will continue to hang on hoping for last second miracles (replay of Iowa). The funny part - Santorum clingers will insist that the guy in second that is down by 9% should drop out and make way for their guy who is down by 19%. It’s this kind of illogical non-pragmatic thinking that will give Mitt the victory.
Rick Perry turned out to be the Fred Thompson of 2012. What happened in both cases is that conservatives put all their hopes in each and both bombed leaving conservatives scattering in all directions. In 2008, I knew Thompson would bomb from the moment he made his announcement to Jay Leno and he couldn't even muster a smile. His utter lack of energy while campaigning told me he just wasn't into it. With Perry, he turned out to be a TERRIBLE debater. Also he keeps repeating about his record for business growth in Texas ad nauseum.
So how can we clone Ronald Reagan?
Looking at S.C.... It would appear that Santorum is playing the role of Thompson.
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