“I consider that opinion a good, albeit unscientific indicator of the tone of the average voter.”
Now ask that neighbor specifics. Would he vote for:
Romney?
Gingrich?
Santorum?
If your neighbor is like my moderate friends, he’ll say no to all 3, and then say he’ll most likely just stay home.
Take a look at Obama’s reelection bumper stickers and his original election stickers. That’s the telling part. People aren’t proud of him.