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To: dirtboy
There are many conservatives who reject the notion you are advancing (because they want someone who will work to change the socialist path we are on), that it is they who should abandon their candidate in favor of yours. I realize you believe (didn't see your vote choice on JimRob's tally...) as do others (but then again many have moved from one candidate to another to another) that once again it is imperative to back the one with the surge.

I respectfully disagree. I want these GOP candidates to be sliced and diced, x-rayed and dissected. I want to see how they handle the pressure, and see whether they come up wanting, or if they have the staying power we need to go up against incumbent Obama.

You are jumping the gun by pushing for an early resolution that will shortchange the process and imperil our opportunity to have the best candidate.

15 posted on 01/10/2012 3:44:48 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I agree with the notion of the candidates getting “sliced and diced” and looked for every possible negative so there are zero surprises from the Democrats. Get all the dirty laundry out now.


17 posted on 01/10/2012 3:50:25 AM PST by napscoordinator (Go Rick! Go Rick! Go Newt! Let's get 'er done.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
I respectfully disagree. I want these GOP candidates to be sliced and diced, x-rayed and dissected. I want to see how they handle the pressure, and see whether they come up wanting, or if they have the staying power we need to go up against incumbent Obama. You are jumping the gun by pushing for an early resolution that will shortchange the process and imperil our opportunity to have the best candidate.

I actually agree with what you are saying. It is a most prudent choice of strategy. No pushback on that one from me.

However, there will come a point (for most it will be South Carolina, and ofcourse there is the rock of Florida waiting to smash anyone left who is not doing well in the polls) where those who are lagging behind in terms of performance will need to make a tough decision. A decision similar to the one that Bachmann made and Perry (appeared) to mull over.

If, say, Candidate X (could be Perry, Gingrich, Santorum...) ends up doing badly in South Carolina, they will have to make a decision on whether it makes sense to continue. Later on the same question will come up in Florida. Why is that key? Simply because if you look at the polls (whichever poll one looks at) it is crystal clear that Romney is struggling at a quarter of the tally, which means that the 'not-Romney's' are around 75%, and once you take out Ron Paul that leaves Conservative-esque candidates at around 50-55%. However, the 'Conservative vote' is so spread out that it makes Romney the 'frontrunner' and Paul a strong second and/or third.

Now, if Candidate X (whoever that might be) crashes and burns in South Carolina, he should give thought to whether he should continue running. Because if the Conservative Vote continues to be split-up then what will happen will be Romney coming first and Paul (of all people) second. It is the archetypical divide-and-rule strategy that has been proven VERY effective for a couple of centuries now (even longer if you take into account Roman military and administrative exploits). You divide a strong opponent into smaller sub-sets, and have the smaller sub-sets engage each other, and you can take over the world. Right now you can see a lot of angst and vitriol all over the Conservative spectrum. Around September last year there was a lot of cr@p happening on Fr even (I remember sending you some posts on that, and you were not even that bad ...there was one pro-Perry supporter who got zotted for plain insulting other people). Then there was a backlash on Perry from supporters of other candidates, primarily Cain supporters. And even now FR is split into 2-3 camps ...the pro Gingrich camp has by far the most people based on the poll conducted by JR, followed by the Santorum and Perry camps (last count Santorum was ahead, but Perry was within striking distance to make it a tie between the two). That is not a bad thing ...everyone doesn't have to buy the same brand of Peanut Butter. What is bad however is the slow-boiling dislike between the various camps. I have seen Perry insulted (in the same way I was saying in September that pro Perry supporters should espouse and promote that positive aspects of their candidate and leave the stupid negativity behind, I also think it is silly for someone to attack a person rather than the positions the person takes. I saw one FReeper attacking Perry's wife even, which was quite unfortunate), I have seen Santorum attacked (some attacks on Santorum have been similar to those used by Liberals ...some sick stuff), and I have seen Gingrich mocked (again out of a Liberal maestro's playbook).

Now, add in Democrats coming in to vote as Republicans in open primaries, and then also add the Ron Paul chaps (if you want to talk about a 'spoiler' Paul is a perfect example). It is very possible for Romney to get the nomination, and it will be a shame if that happens.

Right now there is no need for anyone to leave the race. It is too early, and as I had mentioned a week or two ago it looks like everyone (but Huntsman) had a chance at the top - which is quite unique. Thus in a week or two it is very possible for the polls to show a dramatic change. However, there will come a time (after South Carolina, and definitely by Florida) where the candidates will need to seriously evaluate themselves and their campaigns. The goal for ALL Conservatives is to take out Romney (which is interesting because, for the most part, the candidates have been too busy attacking each other and leaving Romney, again for the most part, scar free), and then after that to face Obama. I know many here think defeating Obama will be easy, but it will not be. There will be around 40% of voters who will vote for him (the core Democrats). He also has the media supporting him full-force. Add to that a fund-raising machine that will go down in history as one of the most capable ones around (and he has been building it up since before the last election). He also has strategists that are good. Add all of that, with the willingness of the media to ignore mistakes and misteps that would hang a Conservative candidate, and Obama is not going to be that easy. We will need to have a candidate who will take out both Romney and Obama (and at the same time nullify the effect of a Paul muddying-of-the-water). As the primaries continue and a candidate who can win against both emerges (whoever it is ...be it Perry, Santorum or Gingrich) then Conservatives will need to start falling behind that candidate.

I predict that after SC you will see the Conservative field get narrowed to two (as the third conservative candidate drops out) ....a Conservative Candidate A and a Conservative Candidate B. The Conservative Candidate A will have a HUGE advantage in the polls over Conservative Candidate B, and as the primaries continue Conservative Candidate B will become more and more irrelevant as more and more conservative voters shift to Conservative Candidate A. This will happen just before or soon after SC, which is why all the candidates are really focusing there. This will also be the change of fortunes for Ron Paul - down (although he will stick around). Thus it will be Conservative Candidate A (getting stronger by the hour), Conservative Candidate B (a vestige that will not fade away but will never burn bright), Ron Paul (who may pull one or two nasty tricks), and Romney (who will have his super PAC machinery trying to take out Conservative Candidate A). At this point the Democrat machine will also start coming into play (so far they have just been laughing at our antics of self-destruction, but then they will come out. I am still convinced that they had something with Sarah not running ...they must have had something on her, but that is just my speculation and it is worth a gallon of warm spit).

I understand why the article is afraid of us giving all those forces a clear target, and I think it makes sense to wait until after South Carolina to identify THE Conservative Candidate A. However ....wait too long and you play right into the hands of Romney (and the person who wrote this is a Romney supporter). Romney will NEVER be the nominee, but we can still cripple ourselves by dragging this too long (as easily as we can cripple ourselves by jumping too quickly). Like many things in life, it is the Goldilocks approach that wins.

27 posted on 01/10/2012 4:54:59 AM PST by spetznaz (Nuclear-tipped Ballistic Missiles: The Ultimate Phallic Symbol)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I am not jumping the gun. Just realizing that Mitt’s stragegy is to keep the anti-Romney voted divided as long as possible. I am NOT saying that we should drop down to one anti-Romney after SC unless an absolutely clear anti-Romney winner emerges. But we also cannot afford to have three anti-Romneys in the race after SC. And after FL, we will need to access what the anti-Romney condition looks like after that primary as well.


29 posted on 01/10/2012 5:01:13 AM PST by dirtboy
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