I think it may have to do with the ratio of primary states that are "winner take all" vs. proportional distribution of delegates. In the WTA states, Romney will grab the ring and if the conservative base is fractured among three candidates, then conservatives lose. If enough of the states are proportional, then I think the rush to unite everyone behind a single candidate becomes irrelevant. Just my two cents.
I've been looking out on the internet for information on how the states are set up, but if anyone has the info, that would be great.
Not sure if this is what you mean, but it sure is fun to play with. FReeper xzins posted it the other day and i LOVE it. http://www.270towin.com/ You can see how the electoral vote has played out since 1789. One caveat: for the 2000 election, under "Election Facts," the website listed Impeachment and Presidential ethics. That SHOULD be listed on the previous election of 1996, under clinton.
According to that site, only Nebraska and Maine are set up to split their electoral votes. Not sure if that's accurate or not. I'm still looking.
One more thing: Wouldn't it be hilarious if someone would start collecting videos of Karl Rove and other GOP-Elites in previous elections contradicting their present-day statements about electoral voting? This morning i saw some "former advisor" to GHWB (on Faux News) saying that whoever wins NH tomorrow, it will be over. This idiot was actually claiming that the importance of NH could never be overestimated and that whoever won it would coast to victory. I have no doubt that Rove will be saying the same thing.
Well, GWB lost NH in '04 to Perry, according to that website above. I'd LOVE to see what that same schmuck was saying back THEN about the "importance" of NH!