Paul is declining, and will no a non-factor in South Carolina, which will have less cross-overs, even though it’s technically an open primary. New Hampshire is Huntsman’s best state, because he’s camped out there for about a year, and because of the high number of Obama-supporting cross-overs. But in conservative South Carolina, Huntsman will - like Paul - be a non-factor.
So South Carolina will be a 4-way race between Romney, Perry, Santorum and Gingrich. If Perry would get out the way, I think Gingrich or Santorum could win with 35 - 40%. But with the conservative vote divided 3 ways, Romney unfortunately is the favorite.
Why should Perry be the one to get out of the way and not Santorum and/or Gingrich? I’d much rather have a successful governor as the nonromney alternative when the primaries finally reach me than a failed senator and an ousted house speaker. I don’t care about the tyranny of the early states.