[af_vet_rr]

You are correct that it was Bush's timetable as approved by the Iraqi legislature. However, we have 8,000 US contractors armed to the teeth defending our diplomatic facilities, provinicial reconstruction teams, and NGOs. All of this is now under the direction of the State Department. I predict that we will suffer a significant loss of American lives in Iraq under this arrangement.

Now that the US Army isn't there propping up the Iraqi government or trying to maintain some semblance of neutrality, the Shiites and Sunnis are going to be more worried about killing off each other. Iraq is just a Middle Eastern version of Yugoslavia. You've got a few groups of people who hate each others guts and are never going to completely get along. It's just falling apart a lot faster than Yugoslavia.

And we could very well see a civil war break out damaging our strategic national interests in the region.

Iraq is in 3rd or 4th place on our list of problems in that region. Our biggest problems are our artificial reliance on Middle Eastern oil, an unstable Pakistan and its nukes, and Iran. If we don't address those other problems, Iraq will not matter, and we can prop up Iraq for decades to come, but it still won't address the other three problems.

That's why I liked Gingrich's take on the situation - Pakistan, Iran, and Middle Eastern oil are all much bigger regional problems.

[A.Hun]

I still hold out hope that Iraq will survive. They are the ones that have lived with the violence every day for eight years. They are the ones that risked their lives to vote, and I’m sure many don’t want to lose that hard earned privilege.

I agree that Iraq is down the list of immediate problems for us. Al-Qaeda can’t use it as a safe haven, and its no longer run by a madman.

Something has to be done about Iran, we are out of time. Anyone, but Paul, that was on that stage will handle it better than Obama.

[kabar]

Iraq is in 3rd or 4th place on our list of problems in that region. Our biggest problems are our artificial reliance on Middle Eastern oil, an unstable Pakistan and its nukes, and Iran. If we don't address those other problems, Iraq will not matter, and we can prop up Iraq for decades to come, but it still won't address the other three problems.

The top five exporting countries accounted for 69 percent of United States crude oil imports in September 2011 while the top ten sources accounted for approximately 88 percent of all U.S. crude oil imports. The top five sources of US crude oil imports for September were Canada (2,324 thousand barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1,465 thousand barrels per day), Mexico (1,099 thousand barrels per day), Venezuela (759 thousand barrels per day) and Nigeria (529 thousand barrels per day).

The rest of the top ten sources, in order, were Colombia (510 thousand barrels per day), Iraq (403 thousand barrels per day), Ecuador (299 thousand barrels per day), Angola (283 thousand barrels per day) and Russia (275 thousand barrels per day). Total crude oil imports averaged 9,006 thousand barrels per day in September, which is a decrease of (16) thousand barrels per day from August 2011.

We only get about 15% of our oil from the Saudis. It is not an artificial reliance until we get our own. And the Saudis will have no problem selling their oil to someone else.

We don't rely on Pakistan, but rather, we have strategic national interests that require us to seek viable bilateral relations. Our relationship with Pakistan has been something of a roller coaster ride ovfer a number of years. The war in Afghanistan forced us to seek better relations so we could support our forces in Afghanistan transiting Pakistan.

Iraq occupies an important strategic position in the region. What happens there will affect our relationships with other countries including Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf countries. Iran seeks hegemony over the region. If they acquire nuclear weapons, you can expect the Saudis and others to do the same thing. This will have serious implications for Israel. Remember how upset the Israelis got when they found out that the Saudis were acquiring IRBMs from China in the mid-80s?

That's why I liked Gingrich's take on the situation - Pakistan, Iran, and Middle Eastern oil are all much bigger regional problems.

Newt, as usual, is talking thru his hat. You can't isolate one problem from another or somehow address them in a hierarchical fashion. What happens in Iraq will affect Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the region and vice versa.