The Real Reason Mitt Romney Has the Lead

Real Clear Politics ^ | January 7, 2012 | Sean Trende

[neverdem]

Mitt Romney has risen to the top of the Republican heap, and now leads by four points in the RCP Average. As little as a year ago, most observers considered this an impossible feat. Romney's poor showing in 2008, combined with the increased salience of his decision to sign a universal health care bill in Massachusetts that included an individual mandate, seemingly made him radioactive to the Republican Party.

Yet here we are today, with Romney potentially poised to wrap up the GOP nomination by the end of February. What made this possible? Commentators such as Ed Kilgore on the left and Erick Erickson on the right have focused on accidents of history. Both columns are worth reading in full, and they are correct that Romney’s likely nomination is due more to accident than to design. But they miss the two biggest accidents involved.

1) Romney has always been in second place. One of the interesting effects of the series of “anti-Romneys” who have come and gone during the campaign is that they have rendered Romney himself something of a FRINO -- a front-runner in name only. Consider...

--snip--

All this has really been the key to Romney’s success. Due to some historical accidents and bad luck for Republicans, their bench is incredibly weak. To be sure, some promising young governors and senators were elected in 2009 and 2010, but this gives the GOP a solid vice-presidential bench, not a particularly strong presidential one (something of the inverse of 2008, when everyone was scratching their heads over whom McCain could pick).

So, to paraphrase Jay Cost (and the great Stealers Wheel), Romney was left in 2012 with no one to the left of him and jokers to the right. The GOP appears to be stuck in the middle with him.

[Grunthor]

Have you seen the kind of judges Romney nominated in Massachusetts by any chance?

[Riodacat]

with Romney potentially poised to wrap up the GOP nomination by the end of February. What made this possible?

Devine predestination?

[Repeal The 17th]

“I don“t agree“

[dolander2002]

Why would you waste your vote? At least, even with Romney, we might get Republican control again. Think “Big Picture”.

[Grunthor]

Dammit

[ansel12]

Governor Romney gives his position on the Second Amendment.

"These guns are not made for recreation or self-defense," Romney said. "They are instruments of destruction with the sole purpose of hunting down and killing people."

[Grunthor]

“At least, even with Romney, we might get Republican control again. Think “Big Picture”.”

“Republican without “Conservative?” Might as well vote Dem.

[PAConservative1]

That will happen with Romney or Obama. He appointed liberal judges in MA.

The ONLY way to get conservative judges on the SC is for one of the conservative candidates to win (NOT Willard Flopney!)

[Mr. K]

If my choice is Obama or Romney - I dont care who wins that

I am NOT saying I will stay home- YOU MUST GO VOTE FOR REPUBLICAN CONGRESS!!!

But if Romney is forced on us, I will NOT vote for him

[phillyfanatic]

Sorry about that because of course that type of naive political vote will re-elect your and my worse enemy since we have been alive: Obama and the Reid-San Fran Nan Dems. Just a silly waste of your vote though I understand your frustration. Still,voters seem to have gravitated toward Rom. and that is where reality has to come in. Yes, anybody but Obama or lose our liberties,free enterprise system , our military alertness and choices plus use of legal industrial entities like oil, gas, shale, coal. For Obama is hell bent on destroying our American values, heritage, and history. Mitt, with his warts, is not.

[ansel12]

Romney is a bridge too far, I won’t vote for him, we have made that clear over the years yet the establishment has pushed him while attacking more acceptable republicans, in 2010, they even worked against some republican primary winners, such as supporting the Independent against the republican for the Alaska Senate seat.

I won’t vote for Mitt Romney.

[phillyfanatic]

Sorry about that because of course that type of naive political vote will re-elect your and my worse enemy since we have been alive: Obama and the Reid-San Fran Nan Dems. Just a silly waste of your vote though I understand your frustration. Still,voters seem to have gravitated toward Rom. and that is where reality has to come in. Yes, anybody but Obama or lose our liberties,free enterprise system , our military alertness and choices plus use of legal industrial entities like oil, gas, shale, coal. For Obama is hell bent on destroying our American values, heritage, and history. Mitt, with his warts, is not.BTW,I am voting Newt.

[neverdem]

Not a primary vote has been cast yet (Iowa is a caucus) and Willard is supposedly the nominee?

Look at the title again: "The Real Reason Mitt Romney Has the Lead." That's the lead, not nomination.

Does the author work for Bain Capital?

IIRC, Bain Capital sent more in donations to Obama than to Romney. IMHO, the author, Sean Trende, is the next best political analyst after Mike Barone.

[GR_Jr.]

“Why would you waste your vote? At least, even with Romney, we might get Republican control again. Think “Big Picture”.”

Big deal. With Republicans like Romney, McConnell, Boehner, Cantor, McCarthey, McCain, Brown, etc, etc, who the heck needs Democrats?

If Romney’s the nominee, and if he won the Presidency along with RINO control in the Senate and the HOR, they will only finish driving he death steak through the nations heart. We will collapse.

If Obama is re-elected, we will collapse as well. So lets let the Democrats have full control, (WH, Senate and HOR) and allow that collapse to happen on their watch.

If we elect Romeny with a Republican congress, the media will always be able to report under “Republicans” America died.

Don’t let that happen.

Romney never gets my vote. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER!

[who knows what evil?]

Why does Mitt Romney have the lead? Just ask this Catholic woman from New Hampshire... "He's been married to the SAME woman all his life (?), and that is VERY IMPORTANT to me..."

(Insert the facepalm image of your choice right here...)

[neverdem]

Thanks for the links.

[Mr. K]

Romney is NOT “at the top”

75% of GOP want SOMEONE ELSE

[Repeal The 17th]

Don’t you just hate when that happens?

[Carry_Okie]

Due to some historical accidents and bad luck for Republicans, their bench is incredibly weak.

Allow me to correct the record:

Due to some Carl Rove and George Bush putting "moderates" in control of State GOP committee funding, their bench is incredibly weak. At least that's what they did in California.

[Belteshazzar]

No, you think “big picture.” If Romney gets the nomination, you will have a third party, because the Tea Party will reject the GOP. That’s the reality. If you don’t believe me, wait and see. What we need is a reversal of Obamism, not a slower descent into it, ala Romney.