Why Does Rick Perry Think He Can Win South Carolina?

TPM ^ | January 5, 2012 | Evan McMorris-Santoro

[Cincinatus' Wife]

After his embarrassing result in Iowa, Rick Perry seemed to get the message the polls have been sending him for months: Republican voters just aren’t that into him. On caucus night, said he’d go back to Texas and figure out what comes next.

But within hours, Perry was sprinting into South Carolina, to make at least one more stand.

Given that the TPM Poll Average shows Perry pulling just 4.8% support in the state, a clear question arises: What on earth is he thinking?

The answer is, team Perry really thinks they can make it happen in South Carolina. The campaign says it really is all-in in the Palmetto State.

“At the end of the day, Gov. Perry is the only Washington outsider in this race, and the only candidate proposing real, substantive conservative reforms that will overhaul Washington, get America working again, and reintroduce fiscal sanity,” spokesperson Liz Mair told me. “Those are key attributes that South Carolina voters care about, especially fiscal, social and Tea Party conservatives who make up a sizable chunk of the electorate in the Palmetto State.”

Perry, of course, has made government reform a huge part of his agenda. He wants a part time Congress, he wants to cut lawmakers’ salaries, he wants to eliminate departments. It’s the kind of thing that supporters say could really resonate in South Carolina.

Mitt Romney’s new surrogate, Sen. John McCain, has been making that case out a line against Rick Santorum in South Carolina, where he points out that unlike the state’s senators, Santorum was pretty friendly to earmarks.

“I think it’s wrong for America and so does Sen. DeMint and so does Sen. Lindsey Graham who have been staunch fighters against earmark and pork barrel spending,” McCain told the South Carolina crowd. “And I know you’re proud of that.”

Indeed, South Carolina Republicans have a long history of backing the kind of candidates who want to turn their government upside down. Gov. Mark Sanford (R), who was popular before he took that Appalachian Trail trip, once brought live piglets down to the state house to protest what he said was the porky ways of state lawmakers.

But if Perry really thinks he can ride this wave in South Carolina, that tactic hasn’t yet been evidenced yet. His first ad in the state is a retread of a bio spot [Values] from November that doesn’t even mention his government reform plan.

But it does mention something else Perry backers say plays well in South Carolina: his military background and Christianity. Unlike New Hampshire, where Molly Ball showed how hard it can be for a values candidate to make a connection, South Carolina is a land where mixing in some ol’ time religion into your stump speech is very much appreciated in a lot of places. In addition, the state is home to a lot of veterans and active-duty military. Perry is a vet himself, and can speak their language, too.

The combo went down very well for Perry in South Carolina in months past. In August, I spent a couple days following Perry around the state. He was so famous back then a guy literally stopped on his way to pick up his wife who was going into labor to have her talk to Perry on a cell phone.

So, Perry’s dialing up South Carolina voters again. And he’s betting the house that they’ll still enthusiastically pick up the call.

[smoothsailing]

Thanks deport, I was pretty sure that was the case.

Perry has a few warts, but I don’t see this as one of them.

[af_vet_rr]

The scary thing - when you have people like Bob Perry directly giving Rick Perry's campaign $2.5 million over the past decade or so, well you know Bob wasn't investing that money in Rick without getting something in return.

Now think about that on a national level with these "Super PACs" where people can give unlimited amounts of money. We just think politics is run by the money now. It's only going to get worse.

God only knows how much Mitt Romney's Super PACs have in their coffers, and I dread the thought of people like George Soros being able to dump as much as they want at will.

I think we will seriously regret these Super PACs.

[smoothsailing]

Yep, I know a little about Bob Perry and Charlie Butts. Those boys are big players. Since they infuse the Texas economy with alot of goods and services and capital I guess their transgressions have to be weighed against that.

All in all, would you say they’re good or bad for Texas?

As long as they’re around will elected officials up to and including the Governor operate any differently than they do now?

[af_vet_rr]

All in all, would you say they’re good or bad for Texas?

If you like illegals or don't mind if they build your house or harvest your food, you like them. Both of those guys are solidly in the corner of illegals.

If you're in the construction business or the farming industry and you believe in only using legal labor, or you're competing against illegals, you're not going to like people like that.

As long as they’re around will elected officials up to and including the Governor operate any differently than they do now?

If they want to keep their jobs and keep winning elections, they aren't going to cross Bob Perry or folks like him. There should have been enough votes to pass the anti-sanctuary cities bill as an example, but once Perry and Butt made their views known, support for it started drying up.

[smoothsailing]

What’s the answer? How do you get rid of them and their power and influence?

[smoothsailing]

Perry is wearing his boots tonight for the New Hampshire debate...”Freedom” and “Liberty

[gogogodzilla]

Well, I’ll vote for him if he’s our candidate come November. That said and out of the three non-Romney candidates (excluding Paul), I think he represents the three pillars of conservatism the worst.

(Conservativism’s three pillars: strong national defense, limited government/low-tax fiscal conservativism, and social conservatism/moral majority)

He plays well to the social conservatism side of the house, is neutral (compared to the field) on a strong national defense, and has a very weak record on fiscal issues.

Which comes out to (range of -1 to 1):
National defense: 0
Social issues: 1
Fiscal issues: -1
Total: 0

Whereas:

Newt Gingrich:
(with his record in Congress of passing a balanced budget, meeting the Contract with America, and reforming welfare)

National defense: 0
Social issues: 1
Fiscal issues: 1
Total: 2

Rick Perry:
(with his record of tort reform, job growth, fighting the Fed over EPA regulations, viscerally pro-states rights, and military service)

National defense: 0.5
Social issues: 0.5 (talks a lot, so he must believe some of it)
Fiscal issues: 1
Total: 2

And what tips me over into the Perry camp is that he’s got executive experience as governor, which translates over to the Presidency very well. Newt’s hobbled by his lack of that. (same with Santorum, but he’s lacking in other areas as well)

[gogogodzilla]

If Perry held it more vertically, it’d almost be a ringer for a West Point salute.

[Dr. Sivana]

Well, I would run my formula differently, but I understand yours.

I am in Illinois. Whichever of the three is best position in my state to beat Romney outright gets my vote.

If I were in NH, I wouldn’t vote for Perry, because only Gingrich or Santorum have a shot there.

Heck, if Virginia doesn’t fix its ballot, I’d even vote for Paul, who is no threat to actually get the nomination.

At this point, I’d be thrilled with Santorum, happy with Perry, satisfied with Gingrich. Whatever it takes to beat Romney in the delegate count.

[edpc]

I'll assume that pic of Ron is at a point where he's neither starting nor stopping. If so, he's doing it wrong, as well. However, as CiC, he at least had a valid reason to do it. Who or what is Perry saluting....and for what reason?

Political theater......poorly performed.

[stars & stripes forever]

RICK PERRY will seek the LORD in perilous times. He has already demonstrated he would not hesitate to call for national prayer.

Everyone should read THE HARBINGER by Jonathan Cahn. The book is a wake-up call to America to turn back to the FOUNDATION upon which this great country was built...God Almighty and his principles.

2 Chronicles 7:14

[SaraJohnson]

Prayer works. God is good. He knows how to fix all the messes through us. He’s rich and He knows everyone, too. He’s a great lobbyest and He’s the only One who can fix the mess we have made of ourselves, each other, this country and world.

[Graewoulf]

Did Perry, or any other Candidate, talk about: OBAMA”CARE” IS A MONOPOLY, AND THEREFORE VIOLATES THE ANTI-TRUST LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA in Saturday night’s debate?

[baysider]

Perry stood tall in those boots tonight at the debate !

He’s head and shoulders above the others ...he knows what is truly important...freedom and liberty !

[af_vet_rr]

What’s the answer? How do you get rid of them and their power and influence?

I thought the Tea Party movement might pull it off, but they were co-opted by the very same politicians that were taking money from these donors.

Hypothetically, you would organize folks who would vote against anybody who took money from people like Bob Perry or Charles Butt or who voted against or spoke out against certain types of legislation that benefited illegals, or who failed to support other types of legislation that would have worked against illegals.

Without campaign contribution limits, you would have to have enough folks willing to vote these politicians out of office to overcome the advantage that money buys, including name recognition.

Is it feasible? Maybe - not many folks vote in the primaries. You'd have to have enough votes to overcome those folks who show up and automatically support the names they recognize, and it's hard as hell to overcome name recognition, especially when you're dealing with folks who don't study up on things and just vote for who they recognize when they've been hearing or seeing plenty of ads bought by all that money you're fighting against.

The problem is, I think it's too late, and I think the damage has been done. Texas is a minority-majority state. Whites are 45% or less of the state and Hispanics are catching up fast, probably within 10-20 years, and the Bob Perrys that support illegal aliens are about to be joined by liberals who also support illegals and between those two, they will have a lock on this state.

I'd like to think I won't live to see that, but I might still be kicking within 10 or 20 years.

It's sad, really, because these actions are not going to win the support of Conservative Hispanics. The billionaires like Bob Perry don't give a damn - they want their sanctuary cities so they can get cheap labor, and the liberals just want votes.

If the GOP in Texas was competent, they'd have a helluva lot more Hispanics voting for them, enough to keep the state Republican for decades to come. They aren't competent, or they just care about all of those campaign donations.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Disclosure reports show that neither Bob Perry [Perry Homes/home builder] nor his wife have donated to Rick Perry's presidential bid. Bob Perry has given money to other candidates but not to Rick Perry. The biggest recipient is Mitt Romney. Bob Perry and his wife gave a combined $5,000 to Romney's early this year and $500,000 to the super PAC Restore Our Future that supports Romney.

In 2008, they supported Romney's nomination with a $5,000 donation between them. According to disclosure reports Gov Tim Pawlenty received a combined $10,000 to his presidential campaign and another $60,000 to his political action committee from Bob Perry and his wife. Bob Perry is also the top donor to the Karl Rove-linked super PAC American Crossroads.

With the notable exception of Lamar Smith (R), mostly Democrat giving, including a PAC contribution for Sen Chuck Schumer (D-NY), also gave to Bill White (D) who lost in his 2010 gubenatorial challenge to Rick Perry – DIDN'T FIND Rick Perry: Charles Butt [HEB CEO] Political Campaign Contributions 2010 Election Cycle [HEB is the largest private company (grocer) in Texas]

With the exception of $1K to Shelia Jackson-Lee and Gene Green -- both democrats, ALL GOP giving but DIDN'T FIND Rick Perry: Bob Perry Political Campaign Contributions 2010 Election Cycle -- Bobby Jack Perry (Bob J. Perry); Houston, Texas homebuilder, owner of Perry Homes, and major contributor to a number of 527 groups: Swift Vets and POWs for Truth and the Economic Freedom Fund. ---- In 2010, Bob Perry donated $7 million to the 527 group American Crossroads.

Donors to Bush absent for Perry [9-1 support Romney] WASHINGTON — Fewer than one in 10 of the top fundraisers who helped George W. Bush shatter records for presidential campaign money in 2000 and 2004 have donated to Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s 2012 presidential campaign, a Houston Chronicle analysis of Federal Election Commission data has found.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a wide lead over other GOP presidential hopefuls in donations received from the 939 “Pioneers” and “Rangers” who raised at least $100,000 each for the Bush presidential efforts. “

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Billionaire gives $5 million to pro-Gingrich group......."A person familiar with the development said Sheldon Adelson, a casino mogul and longtime donor to Republican candidates, made the contribution Friday to Winning Our Future, a super PAC run by Gingrich allies. The person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity and was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said Adelson is expected to contribute as much or more to the candidate who eventually wins the Republican nomination, be it Gingrich or one of his rivals."......

[af_vet_rr]

In 2008, they supported Romney's nomination with a $5,000 donation between them.

During the 2008 campaign, Rick Perry supported Rudy Giuliani's campaign by going on TV and telling America that Rudy Giuliani was the most Conservative candidate, and by campaigning in person for Rudy. That's worth a lot more than giving $5,000 to Romney.





Disclosure reports show that neither Bob Perry [Perry Homes/home builder] nor his wife have donated to Rick Perry's presidential bid. Bob Perry has given money to other candidates but not to Rick Perry. The biggest recipient is Mitt Romney. Bob Perry and his wife gave a combined $5,000 to Romney's early this year and $500,000 to the super PAC Restore Our Future that supports Romney.

Bob Perry has given $2.5 million directly to Rick Perry's gubernatorial campaigns over the last decade. Don't think for one moment that they aren't still good buddies or that they've forgotten who the other person is.

And you have no idea whether or not Bob Perry donated to any Super PACs backing Perry, since some of that information won't be reported until January 31. That's one of the biggest problems I have with the Super PACs is that they can do hatchet jobs right now without having to reveal their activities/donations until after a few of the first primaries/caucuses.

When February 1st comes around, or when the FEC releases those records, if Rick Perry is still in the race, ping me and we'll go over those Super PAC records together and look for Bob Perry contributions. We can create our own thread about it. I think you'll find it very interesting.

[sam_paine]

The number of engines is irrelevant

Of course my statement is relevant to my point.

If you want to tarry off into your unrelated tangent about test pilots and fighters, it's interesting, but has nothing to do with the relevance of my post!

Perry has demonstrated a skillset and a competence and a responsibility that the others have not. Just like a box of cereal is more nutritious than just an empty box.

And for that matter, my analogy with multi-engine rating would be that a box of raisin bran (multi-engine) is more nutritious (skillful) than any of the other empty boxes (non-pilots), and indeed, even a box of corn flakes (single-engine rated.)

For a concrete example of my point, look at JFK Jr who killed himself and a couple of others because he was, in fact, an idiot.

That's the example I'm talking about. Perry captained multi-million dollar planes and cargoes, with professional crews and is treated like an idiot because he's a conservative. An arrogant, over-confident, unskilled single-engine neophyte bit off more than he could chew and yet if you asked any reporter, I'd guarantee they'd assume JFK Jr was "smarter" than Perry. That's the point.

[smoothsailing]

from Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee
Excerpts From Texas Governor Rick Perry’s Press Conference Endorsing Mayor Rudy Giuliani,
Washington, D.C.
October 17, 2007

GOVERNOR RICK PERRY: “[O]ver the next 13 months, the American people are going to have the opportunity to sort through a lot of issues, sort through a lot of information. They’re going to look at the records of these candidates, they are going to determine who offers the real answers. And they’re going to figure out who is offering platitudes … and they’re going to look at who has the experience of a leader that can take us, particularly in times of crisis, take us forward.

“And as a border state governor, I can tell you that there’s no such thing as homeland security without border security. As a voter, I’m not looking for somebody with the best sound bite or an individual who’s just out talking over my head. I’m looking for a proven leader, who has been successful in disrupting, dismantling criminal enterprise, individuals that threaten our families and our way of life. Executive experience matters for the next President of the United States, whether they’re responding to a disaster or they’re slicing through bureaucratic red tape or they’re cutting taxes. The mayor of America’s largest city is amply prepared to be the next President of the United States. And I’m not talking about just any mayor, I’m talking about America’s Mayor.

“Today I’m endorsing Rudy Giuliani for the presidency of the United States because he’s got a record, a strong record of leadership. He’s got the right vision for a nation at war. He’s got clarity of purpose I think that’s unequaled by any candidate in this race. Rudy Giuliani is a leader who has a proven record of leadership. He gets things done. He is a results-oriented leader.

“Rudy Giuliani is best equipped to make the tough choices for a country at war. He’s a consistent leader with a track record of consistent results. He offers America a much better vision than another Clinton president. The office of president requires much of its occupant. We’ve got to be diligent in choosing the next leader of this great country. Our nation’s leader must be able to stare down the criminal element, whether they’re trafficking in drugs or whether they’re planting roadside bombs. Our nation’s leader must be willing to act precisely in response to threats without dialing up their lawyers first. Our nation’s leader must understand the stifling effect of runaway taxation and be willing to open up the path for growth. Our nation’s leader must be willing to do what’s right even when it’s unpopular. I strongly believe that Rudy Giuliani is that man. He’s not only seen first hand the devastation of a terrorist attack, but he knows what it takes to respond with resolve, with compassion, with clear leadership.

“Mayor, I’ve been on the receiving end of one of those tough calls from a neighboring government. They asked me to provide food and shelter and safe haven for thousands of their citizens in the midst of a very devastating hurricane. So I know in the times of crisis it demands of leaders to be decisive. It demands you to have good judgment. It demands you to be driven to do what is necessary to preserve the lives, and I might add the dignity, of our fellow human beings.

“Rudy Giuliani has made a career out of standing up for victims, prosecuting the worst criminals and by bringing them to justice. During his time leading one of the most liberal cities in America, Rudy Giuliani successfully cut taxes, he kept spending below the growth of inflation and population during that period of time, and he privatized and he deregulated many of the aspects of that city’s out-of-control bureaucracy.

“The time that we’ve spent together, whether it’s been on the phone or it’s been face-to-face, I’ve asked him some tough questions. I’ve looked him in his eye as he answered. I studied his positions. And I will tell you I have been highly impressed with his record. I’ve taken the measure of a man. And I believe that without a doubt or reservation that Rudy Giuliani is the most capable, the most prepared individual of either party to be the next President of the United States. He is the best of a strong field of Republican candidates and I’m proud to proclaim my support of his campaign. So I am proud to introduce to you America’s Mayor, a proven fiscal conservative, a leader who gets things done and the best hope of our nation’s future.” …

###

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/giuliani/giuliani101707prtx.html