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Let’s take these head-on.

The DF-21D to date is really vapor-ware. They have rolled a few missiles through Tieanamen Square, written a lot of white paprers about it, and assembled parts and done static, and fixed dynamic testing, as well as some local tests.

But not once have they conducted a single live fire, full up system test of this missile...which would involve all of their C4 elements necessary to make it work. Until they shoot a missile out into the South China Sea hundreds or over 1000 km from the launch point and hit a manuevering vessel that they acquire initially by satellite or some other asset (submarine, patrol aircraft, etc) and then have the missile reaquire that target once it returns into the atmosphere and then hit it...they essentially have nothing. And they have never done that...not once.

Add to this the fact that such a system is charging headlong into the Navy’s best and premiere defense, the AEGIS anti-missile system, which has been tested successfully numerous times against precisely ballistic missiles...and tested openly...then you have the prospect for a Chinese system that does not exist yet, and if it ever does it will be facing defenses designed specifically to counter this very weapon.

Sounds more like a Sun Tsu misdirection operation, trying to convince an enemy (that would be us) to either be afraid to use or not deploy an effective weapon (in this case our carriers) because of fear of a trumped up non-existant DF-21D missile.

Ok, now, take their Song and newer Yuan class SSK (diesel electric) submarines. These are good combatants and getting better for the littoral waters...bu they are not effective against high speed naval vessels manuevering in the open sea. They are too slow and must lie in wait near a choke point, or in shallow waters to have a chance. The US Navy Carrier Strike Groups have very effective ASW warfare including long range patrol aircraft from shore, world-wide intelligence systems on the sea floor to hear and track enemy subs, ASW helicopters ranging in front of and all around the carrier, effective ASW frigates (FFG) and destroyers (DDG) protecting the carrier, and finally, nuclear submarines of our own that accompany each carrier specifically to hunt down and kill enemy subs.

The Chinese nuclear subs that can keep up with our carriers are getting better, but are still too loud and few in numbers. They would be more dangerous than the Songs in deep open water, but their sound signature will give them away unless they hold still and wait in which case they lose their ability to stay with the carrier and have to rely on knowing where the carrier is going and finding good waters with good thermal environs so they can hope to avoind our searches. We saturate the areas along the intended path of our carrier movement with ASW work, passive and active...and at any choke points...and are likely to find them anyway.

Let’s talk their J-20 new fighter. I admit it is quite an achievement. But look at its engines in the rear...how far they stick out without any IR protections. Those engines are IR missile magnets. In addition, this aricraft is probably at least 6 years or more from being deployed in any numbers by the PLAAF. Its almost more of a technology demonstrator than a manufacturing prototype. Big jump for the PLAAF, but not on our immediate event hoorizon as a threat...and the F-22 will still eat its lunch. Our problem is we have only produced 187 F-22 and intend to do no more. Not enough if a major conflict breaks out.

Finally, their carrier. It is a big achievement for them and represents their direction towards blue water capability and a desire to confront and face the US Navy in the western pacific. They are really building up their navy in numbers of new, modern surface compabatants, from FACs, LCS (OPV) type vessels, modern multi-mission FFGs, modern, capable DDGs including an Arleigh Burk knock-off with their own PARS and battle management system, up to new San Antonio type LPDs and this carrier. They have supposedly started building two more carriers in Shanghai as we speak but they are not far enough along yet to be seen. They have the new J-15 strike fighter which they are beginning to produce. It’s an updated and upgraded SU-33 that the Russian use for thier carrier. It has decent range and ordinance carry capabilities and is very manueverable and a good aircraft. But they are using a STOBAR carrier design which will limit the amount of fuel and ordinance they can take off with over the ski-jump. Unitl they get to a CATOBAR (Cats and traps) design, they will be burdened by this disadvantage. And they are still probably 2-3 years before they have a complete trained air wing for this 1st new carrier. Still, it represents a significant change of balance in the WESPAC and will be, outside of our own carriers, the most powerful carrier group in the region. That’s why you are seeing Japan, Korea, Australia and India also going all out to develop their own naval aviation capabilities.

Read all about the Chinese here:

The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia
http://www.jeffhead.com/redseadragon

Read all about the World’s aircraft carriers here:

World-wide Aircraft Carriers
http://www.jeffhead.com/worldwideaircraftcarriers/

Hope all this helps.

China is a rising threat and we need to act now to limit their growth and increase our own. Since the mid 1990s we have been decreasing our naval power and size and the Chinese have been dramatically increasing theirs. Sooner or later the lines will cross, first in numbers, but also ultimately in capability. We have time, but we need to recognize it and act. Exotic technologies are great and we are pushing them with the Ford Class CVNs and the Zumwalt Class DDGs, but we also need numbers. Naploean once said that quantity has a quality all its own. We experienced that specifically from the Chinese in the latter half of the Korean War.