“Is there a math/statistician here on FR that can compute the odds of that happening? a 6 vote rise in 4 years?”
Well, assuming voting range within 5 percent, that’s still around 5k voters, assuming that voting population is flat.
6/5k would be about a 10th of a percent. So you would have to go through 1000 elections to see a similar pattern.
Assuming 50 contested primaries over 4 years, that’s around 80 years for us to see this turn up in a primary election.
Thanks! This is why Normie stays away from math whenever possible ;)
I’d have guessed a lot more/longer but still, that’s a pretty slim chance.