[mkjessup]

Can Iran actually close the straight?
The biggest reason why they won't, is that they will be hurt worse than anyone else by a closure.

Could you elaborate a bit on that, for the benefit of those unfamiliar with the dynamics of the situation?

[halfright]

pretty easy to figure out....the Idiots in Iran have plenty of oil but no refineries. Thats why I doubt they will close the Straights. Once the gasoline and diesel fuel run out their economy is toast. Like kicking one’s self in the nads.

[SampleMan]

Could you elaborate a bit on that, for the benefit of those unfamiliar with the dynamics of the situation?

1. They must export oil via the Gulf and import gasoline (no refineries of their own) in order to survive economically. They have little ability to meet requirements overland.

2. They will lose most of their status weapons, such as ships, submarines, and aircraft if they attack shipping. You can talk a great fight to make yourself appear the champion, but getting your butt kicked puts the truth to the matter.

3. China's oil supply would be hit hard, and China is one of their major protectors.

4. If strikes on Iran commence, their nuclear production facilities will be tops on the list, and that deprives them of their international dance card.

5. It might just trigger a serious armed revolt within Iran.