Just who are those independents who wouldn't vote for Newt, Bachmann, Perry (forget Paul) who would be moved to vote for Romney? Are these the fabled "moderates" who never vote for a Republican...but would somehow vote for Romney?
After shying away from red meat rhetoric in the primaries, he may be liberated to play to the base in the general, without turning off anybody in the middle.
Why would Romney have to be "liberated" to play to the base? Why does he have to wait until the general election? Why can't he do it during the primaries?
No way Obama survives hard hitting campaign from a candidate the institutional left can't destroy with scandal.
How can Romney mount a "hard-hitting campaign" if he can't attack Obama on Obamacare?
You may well be right, Minn, that Romney can overcome all his negatives and still beat Obama. But he's far from a strong candidate. We're talking about a guy who couldn't even beat McCain in 2008, fer cryin' out loud.
There are many million of them, mostly women, almost exclusively apolitical marginal voters. Not moderate, just too detached to vote ideology.
Here's what Newt has for them: He's a pudgy, pugnacious, full of himself blowhard, and somebody somewhere said something about him and deathbed divorce papers or something. Do I really want to look at that mug for 4 years? He's really hard to like personally for people on his own team. He isn't going to appeal to many that aren't already predisposed to dislike his opponent. Then there's the fact that Newt,s flirtation with trendy lefty thoughts doesn't make him acceptable to some on the right. The sit down with Nancy will not be forgotten.
I'm sure you have noticed, looks and personae are probably the two biggest factors in determine presidential electability. The most likable candidate usually wins.
Bachmann: Gotta love the woman. But, like Newt, she has said a few things that make easy to characterture. The vaccine thing was suicidal. And it's not political moderates that would refuse to support Michelle Bachmann, it's everybody that refused to support Palin because Tina Fey told them not to. I would love to see the result of a Bachmann Obama race, because I don't think it's impossible for her to beat him, but she's have to have something really big go her way to overcome the cultural hysteria that her nomination would surely set off. There could maybe be some incredible backlash and cultural awakening about how routinely the left demonizes normalcy, combined with some huge event, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Rick Perry: Seriously? He has run a historically awful campaign. If it was really his intention to convince people not previously familiar with him that he is a thoroughly incompetent, bumbling, hayseed, he has succeeded wildly. I would, of course, vote for him over Obama enthusiastically. But I don't remember the last time I was so unimpressed with somebody I really tried to like. He just doesn't play well on a national stage.
Romney has that vanilla, phony baloney, plastic banana, used car salesman sort of look and demeanor that apolitical people will find much easier to vote and root for compared to the candidates we all prefer. Most FR readers think about more than looks, charm (blandness, some would say), and vulnerability to smears. But many voters don't Unlike some, I don't believe Romney's wealth will be a big factor. The idiot "99%" aren't going to vote Republican anyway.
It's hard to find anybody excited about a Romney nomination, me included. But the assessment that he is toast, compared to any other surviving Republican candidate seems a stretch.
Are these the fabled "moderates" who never vote for a Republican...but would somehow vote for Romney?
No. As discussed, they are apolitical personality voters. The broke decisively for Obama in 08, and for Bush in 04 because Kerry is such a twit. I'm sure you know a few. It's 50/50 on whether they could name the two senators from their state. But they vote in presidential Elections. They vote Republican as often as not.
Obama abysmal failure as a president is going to make it much more difficult for him to capture the cultural momentum this time. It isn't just conservatives that are sick of him.
A Republican opponent that is difficult to demonize and mock effectively will make it hard for Obama to change the subject from his inadequacies. People guided by the current pop culture mood, rather than policy or ideological preferences, decide presidential elections. I think it's hard to argue that any of Romney's opponents are better equipped to appeal to the shallow, which I think your assessment ignores.
God, I can't believe how long I rambled on.