Who cares about moderates, it’s Independents that count. They are about 30% of the population, according to Rassmuseen. They’ve called 15,000/month since 2009 for the survey.
In reality, Independents are subject to the same political realities and districting mathematics as the rest of us. The greater polity cares little for your own attempts to classify or categorize yourself.
Active political life occurs within the frame work of parties, or internally within factions that themselves gravitate to the parties.
Our system of single member districts and first past the post election victories ensures that we will have ONLY TWO POLES OF REFERENCE.
If you are a pollster and you really want to see which way things are going you attempt to find out how your samples voted last time. You do that by stealth and trickery ~ just like you do it to discover brand preferences.
The business of political polling in multi-party Europe is probably just this side of Sisyphean ~ and there even the pollsters wait for the electoral results anxiously and are frequently surprised. They can detect only the broadest of movements.
But back to the Independents for a moment ~ they may well be free of direct party affiliation but they still live within the real world of organizations and natural classes that in their turn gravitate to the parties. Getting off the local party mailing lists does little to change your employment, religion, age, location, lifestyle, race, creed, color and so forth. Those factors continue to play an enormous part in how you will behave in the coming elections and there's not a whole lot you can do about it.