I am torn as to Iran’s ability to have and launch anti-ship missiles of any sort and be effective. I know they have some older and newer missiles and I know we have some counter measures, but between Iran’s desire to actually sink a ship, and the sh*tstorm that would bring them, and our ability to swat a missile out of the air I am torn as to that actual event taking place and the results being effective.
I have no doubt that if they have significant numbers of effective missiles and they have the coastline to operate from with impunity without our taking complete control of the terrain. We cannot possibly control that many caves and land mass without actually taking possession of it and that would mean at least 350,000 troops. We are talking about 100 miles of coastline to defend and at least 10 miles inland. It would be nearly impossible without the full force of our military being present.
As far as finding and destroying SCUD type missiles. No problem. Things, both inter-departmentally and technologically, have changed since GW1 in finding, launch detection, and interception. We had the technology even then but politics and rivalry made the technology ineffective. However, politically we would be hesitant and, as you know, he who hesitates loses. A ship or two will go down before we get off our political ass and make effective military moves. However, even then I suspect we will not act militarily with enough force to stop the attacks, much less ever.
We have a military of nation building and have forgotten what it is like to actually punish and control another nation. We can do it militarily, but we politically prefer to ask permission to blow our own noses and not bother anyone else or make them feel bad. Control an entire 100 mile range of Iranian territory and perhaps risk war with many Islamic nations? Unlikely with a Muslim in the Whitehouse or with someone like Jimmy Carter.
If Iran wanted to do themselves damage by sinking some ships they know they will suffer some damage, but they also know we gave Iraq back and would do the same for them. They risk nothing but martyrdom. So, I am torn. Will they? Can they? Can we? Will we?
Their launch area is more like 500 miles by 100 miles deep, but I get your point.
So much rests on the unknowable inner workings of the mullahs’ minds. But I have a feeling that 2012 is shaping up to be momentous.