Posted on 12/28/2011 8:16:18 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Iranian naval chief Habibollah Sayyari said Wednesday that "Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's armed forces is really easy ... or as Iranians say it will be easier than drinking a glass of water."
Parisa Hafezi of Reuters reports Sayyari then topped this off by saying that while his forces could do this at any time, there was currently no need, as they control the Sea of Oman and therefore all shipping through the strait.
Iran's threats Tuesday to close the strait sent oil prices up close to 2%, but it won't last.
Oil analyst Thorbjoern bak Jensen, with Global Risk Management told Reuters, "The threat by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz supported the oil market yesterday, but the effect is fading today as it will probably be empty threats as they cannot stop the flow for a longer period due to the amount of U.S. hardware in the area."
It's unclear what Sayyari meant by controlling the Sea of Oman, but for its part the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet announced today that "Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will not be tolerated."
Based in Bahrain the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet fleet consists of an Aircraft Carrier Battle Group, an Amphibious Ready Group, surface combatants, submarines, maritime patrol and surveillance planes, and logistics ships.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
You are making the error, IMHO, of supposing normal, rational, Western thought processes on an Iranian leadership which is actually trying to bring on their own Shiite version of the End Times. Ahmadinejhad has said his purpose on earth is to kick of the Final War, that the muslims will win. He doesn’t care if 90% of humanity is wiped out, as long as the 10% left are mostly muslim.
It’s a really big mistake to put your own thought processes onto an enemy which does not share them. I’m sure most “think tankers” in 1941 thought the Japanese would not attack, based on their own Western thought processes and reading of the geopolitical situation.
It’s really a classic mistake to do this. What counts is the Iranian leadership’s thinking, not your thinking or the Pentagon’s or the NSC’s or Obama’s.
If each of the thousands of missile crews in hidden caves with sealed launch orders are told to launch on day XX after the war starts, it won’t matter what average Iranians think, any more than what you or I think.
Yeah, right, we’re going to drop hundreds of nukes over thousands of square miles of cliffs and ravines to try to destroy their hidden mobile missile launchers.
There’s a plan I’m sure we’ll try. Especially Obama.
/Sarcasm
Thanks for the informative reply. It would be nice to send all the oil out of the region so it bypasses the Straits of Hormuz, but if Iran gets a nuke it won’t really make much difference assuming they use it on Ghawar infrastructure. But, then the Iran problem will go away forever in a series of mushroom clouds.
I don’t think I am making the error of attributing rational thought to Iranian leaders, but I think even deranged tyrants have pressure points that can cause pain for them.
There is already a large amount of unrest in Iran due to factors such as governmental oppression, international isolation and even a shortage of refined products such as gasoline. Taking out refineries by various strategic means short of nuclear war is an option, as is mining Iranian ports and destroying harbor facilities. A country of 75 million people, already severely constrained by a lack of refined products is going to have a very difficult time doing anything over land if their ports are closed, and their anemic refining capability is disabled.
The point I make is the world is not going to sit around and let Iran close the Persian Gulf. Iran can bluster all they want, but if the missiles fly, what the thought process is in Iran is going to be secondary, as events will acquire a life of their own. What the Iranian leadership is thinking will be irrelevant.
I am not advocating for war. We have had plenty of it for a while, but if they take the first shot, it won’t be a question that there will be open hostility.
As others have said, though, the current administration cannot be counted on to protect our interests, as they have stated over and over again they want oil prices higher to force Americans to accept green solutions. That is their priority.
If Iran initiates hostilities, they can kiss their nuclear program goodbye, or at least a large portion of it.
Yikes. So if they can close the straits, the economies of both Europe and China sink into the toilet. Drill Baby Drill needs to be an integral part of our defense. Imagine an empty Walmart, thousands of destitute Europeans and boat loads of Chinese landing on our shores. Party like its 1899 !
Recall there was a book written around 1910 making the point that since the European countries were so interconnected economically there could never again be a major war in Europe.
That sounds right to me, and history is repeating on a global scale.
The Iranian leaders understand full well we would attack, disrupt or spoof their C&C, so they might have built a plan based upon sealed standing orders. “No matter what you hear on the radio after the war starts, you will open your sealed orders on day five, and obey them to your last breath, on pain of eternal damnation if you disobey them.”
Remember, the missile batteries are not under the control of prof. military, but fanatical rev. guards.
If they are given sealed orders to remain in their caves until day 95, eating Iranian MREs, they will do so with all the fervor of the Japs hiding on Pacific Islands into the 1950s, 60s and 70s. Then on day 95 (or any other day in their orders) they will come out and fire at any ships in range. Each battery can be given a different launch day. No orders from above will be needed, and no orders not to launch will be believed or obeyed. No recall possible.
Don't discount this “doomsday” option. The mullahs are on record as trying to instigate a doomsday “return of the Mahdi” scenario.
Don't assume rational Western thought processes on them, and don't assume an Iranian war plan that can be recalled by the Iranian leadership due to Western pressure. Once begun, each missile crew might have to be dug out by troops on the ground. Considering we were not even able to stop a single SCUD launch in Desert Storm, I'd assume a large % of the mobile anti-ship missile batteries will be operational for months after the hostilities open.
I agree with you TM that expecting the Iranian leadership to follow rational thought processes is problematic.
But I expect them to respond to other, more painful stimuli the way a lower, non-rational form of life might.
The question is always, what are those stimuli?
LOL! The communist coward Obama will never, ever use the military to protect the U.S.
What I said was "Keeping the straits open could be done, by a President who really wanted to", and the means I specified was by inflicting enough pain on the Iranian leadership that they would not want to launch.
I did not say that out current President was the kind of person who would be willing to inflict the kind of pain that would be needed to cause the Iranians to send their own army scouring the hill caves for their launchers to make them stop. Nor did I specify the upper limit of the response.
It might be that the level of response needed might be to wipe Iran clean of any form of life, and spread persistent VX on the entire coast from the shoreline inland to the limit of anti-ship missile range.
My point is that there IS a level of response that would make them stop, and that we posses the means to inflict it. That level may just be the Carthage Option. The only question is the willingness of the President to use it.
Iran closing the Straits works to accomplish what barry bassturd is seeking, which is the demiose of Western Civilization and the global sweep of socialism with an oligarchical authority. Barry Soetoro is the greatest enemy of The United States ever to come to power over the once sovereign peoples.
Guess you've discounted the possibility of a MEU's being tasked with sweeping the Iranian littoral along the Straits, supported by, say 10th Mountain and other assets from the States. None of this patrolling and w/o IED stuff, either -- I'm talking about just killing everything that moves, wrecking everything that doesn't move, and turning that part of the country into scorched dirt.
There's even easier options that will leave their AS assets inoperable, period. But that would be mean or something. (Now ask me if I care. Do you?)
Patton's right, this is all about 2012 for Barky.
That said, Barky's MSM buddies are already happy-talking the economy as furiously as they can...... "ooooh, after-Christmas sales are booming! Sales up, jobs will be up (quote some DimRat econopol slimebag like Krugman -- one of 'em did already), construction up, house prices up (your equity/wealth-effect feelgood factor with 'em)", and blah, blah, blah.
Georgie Clintonopoulos and Hatey Katie will be trying to happy-talk Slick into a second term, and the 'Rat cadres in the statistics-issuing departments of the FedGov will be feeding them prolechum and liestats to support their Big Lie.
Gotta outlast AJ's Kennedy and Scalia, after all. Get those lesbian Communist lawyers in there ....repeal 2A as Job One for the Communist cadre comrades ... and so on.
Don’t be silly. That’s about like saying we could do Iwo Jima in a weekend with a Scout troop. The missile launch area is an arc 500 miles by over 100 deep, of cliffs, mountains and ravines.
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