Did the VA GOP change the rules on primary ballot access in November 2011?

Redstate ^ | 12/26/2011 | Moe Lane

[TBBT]

Richard Winger over at Ballot Access News has an EXTREMELY interesting post (link via here) on the mess that the Virginia Republican party has found itself in over… access to the ballot in Virginia. For those coming in late, background here and here: the very short version is that the VA GOP only certified Mitt Romney and Ron Paul for its primary ballot. Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich both had too many signatures tossed; Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Michele Bachmann didn’t even try. Of the seven candidates, one (Romney) had more than enough signatures (15K) to bypass the verification process entirely. All of this has caused a lot of agitation among Republicans following the primary process, of course; and not just from people who disapprove of what the VA GOP has done. There has been a good deal of defending of the outcome; and one argument heavily used in this defense has been that the campaigns all knew the rules and that previous Republican campaigns were able to get on the ballot, so clearly a competent current Republican campaign should have done so.

One small problem with that: as Winger argues, the rules were allegedly drastically changed. In November of this year.

[ConfidentConservative]

Still your opinion,

“Sorry those facts burst your worldview.”

And now, your opinion is wrong.

I am not attacking you. I am stating only the facts.

Newt and Perry had more then the “required” votes.

Now your opinion raises the BAR because you know there are cheaters counting the signatures, right?

I understand what you are saying. but to SAY Newt and Perry are at fault? NOT

So next time, IF the leaders play this game again (because they get away with it) and raise the number of signatures say to 20,000? It would still be Newt and Perry’s fault for not coming up with 16,000 votes so these 16,000 have to be checked.

Where do you draw the line and say, HEY, this needs to stop!

The VOTERS lose here, Right? Because leaders change the rules to get what they want.

[fightinJAG]

>> allegedly drastically changed

What is all this baloney about ‘allegedly changed the rules’, they either did or they didn’t. It should be easily provable one way or the other.

Exactly.

I note how it's "obey the 11th Amendment" time when it's "their" candidate who's being criticized or taking it in the shins, but it's rush in and accuse Republicans who volunteer to run our elections of corruption, deception and slime when the result is not in "their" candidate's favor.

It's a pretty safe bet that, had Newt made the ballot, he would be the first to be out there defending the process and admonishing those candidates who didn't make the cut that it was just too bad, they should have understood and played by the rules.

It was known even before November that Newt was going to have a very tough time making the ballot:

Could GOP Presidential candidates fail to make the Virginia ballot?

[ConfidentConservative]

exactly!

[EternalVigilance]

The death throes of the Republican elephant are so ugly.

[Gideon7]

Just for fun I ran some numbers. (I’m off work today and bored :-)

- Population of one congressional district: 647,000, based on 2000 Census.

- Percent of population who are eligible to vote (that is, excluding minors, felons, extreme eldery): About 75%

- Fraction of eligible voters who actually register: About 40%

- Fraction of eligible registered voters who are Democrat in a DC-area district: Roughly 90%.

- Fraction of the remaining non-Dems who support Newt over Romney: 50% (most recent VA polls).

647,000 * .10 * .40 * .30 * .5 = 3882

You can whittle the number down further by removing the fraction of Rs who want to keep their DC-area job by not putting their name in a govt database that can publicly searched.

Newt certainly had his work cut out for him. He had to find roughly 400 out of 3800 needles in a 647,000 needle haystack.

[ConfidentConservative]

He put in OVER the signatures required!

Here...

“One small problem with that: as Winger argues, the rules were allegedly drastically changed. In November of this year.”

In this article posted.

IF NEWT or PERRY did NOT have OVER the number of signatures required I would agree with your argument.

but now, it is me whining with now reason? REALLY?

[ConfidentConservative]

now.... no reason..

spell check doesn’t always help... sheesh ;)

[normy]

That’s exactly what they did. This could really bite Romney.

[Gideon7]

Oops I mean 647000*.75*.4*.1*.5 = 9705.

(I drank too much egg-nog last night.)

[kabar]

one (Romney) had more than enough signatures (15K) to bypass the verification process entirely.

Not true. Even if you believe the undated letter of RPV Chair Pat Mullins is valid and the way the certification process was carried out, any candidate with over 15,000 signatures would have to have 600 valid signatures from each of the 11 Cogressional districts.

[kabar]

And as much as these folks want to complain, plenty of other candidates with fewer resources have made it onto the Virginia presidential primary ballot since the rules were loosened in 1999. Here’s a quick list:

2008 – Barack Obama, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, John Edwards; Ron Paul, John McCain, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney.

2004 – Al Sharpton, John Kerry, Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Dick Gephardt, Lyndon Larouche.

2000 – Alan Keyes, Gary Bauer, George W. Bush, John McCain, Steve Forbes.

So, apparently, Lyndon Larouche, Al Sharpton, Alan Keyes, Fred Thompson and Dennis Kucinich ran better organized campaigns for their party nominations than Gingrich and Perry. Wow.

[mrsmith]

"But we used to be able to cheat!"

I hope they can find a better claim than that...

[COBOL2Java]

Here’s what we know:

Mitt’s buds are running the levers of power in Virginia. Mitt can afford lots of high-powered lawyers. The rules to get on the ballot in Virginia are ridiculously arcane, and favor those in power.

Someone managed to convince the Virginia Republican Establishment (who, amazingly enough, are in favor of Mitt) to change the rules at the last minute. This change introduced, for the very first time, a process whereby the signatures and addresses had to be verified - UNLESS a candidate has over 15,000 signatures (in which case verification is not necessary).

Prior to this new standard, all you needed was 10,000 signatures. Newt, Perry, Paul, and Romney all met that standard. The rules suddenly change! Anyone with less than 15,000 signatures had to be verified! Newt’s signatures and Perry’s signatures are less than 15,000 so verification begins.

A Friday-night dead drop is made to the media that enough of Newt’s and Perry’s signatures are thrown out to put them less than 10,000. Hey, it’s Christmas! Noone will notice! The state-controlled media puts out the propaganda: Newt and Perry failed to make the required number of signatures.

Although the state-controlled media, who want Mitt, ignore the full story, the alternate media begins to look into it. Hopefully enough of a stink will be made.

I hope the Virginia Republican Party are embarrassed enough to put Newt and Perry back on the ballot. However, whether or not that happens, I hope the alternate media won’t let this get swept under the rug, and the resulting exposure will make the Virginia Republican Party look bad (especially for the Friday-night-before-Christmas dead drop to the media); at the minimum, that’s my hope.

[ConfidentConservative]

If no changes were made to the rules this NOVEMBER, 20011..
then I would agree with you..

but as this Article posted, says...

“One small problem with that: as Winger argues, the rules were allegedly drastically changed. In November of this year.”

(noting the disclaimer using “allegedly”, which I understand the writer’s need.)

Now we can NOT include all the people you listed before November of this year. right?

AND the only one making over 15,000 votes is *drum rolls*

ROMNEY!

[ez]

Newt certainly had his work cut out for him. He had to find roughly 400 out of 3800 needles in a 647,000 needle haystack.

400 politically active registered voters that hadn't already pledged to another candidate.

[COBOL2Java]

And as much as these folks want to complain, plenty of other candidates with fewer resources have made it onto the Virginia presidential primary ballot since the rules were loosened in 1999.

That's because until a month ago the signatures were not required to be verified.

[kabar]

Anyone can sign the petition. We don't have registration by party in VA. Despite living in VA for ten years and every candidate being notified of the requirements on March 6th, Newt hurriedly came back from NH on December 21, one day before the deadline, and had rallies in Arlington and Richmond with the price of admission being the signing of a petition. This smacks of an unorganized campaign that just couldn't get its act together.

You can hang on to these conspiracy theories and lament the unfair rules in VA, but the fact is that the responsibility and blame lies squarely on the candidates. Santorum, who also lives in VA, Bachmann, and Huntsman didn't even try to get on the ballot in VA. This is very revealing. Serious candidates must plan down the road if they are really in it to win it.

[Gideon7]

The new computer-based address checking system is new for 2012. It was not used in 2008.

It gets even better. In 2008 the VA GOP’s Safe Harbor rule was set at 10,000/400. That is, in 2008 the VA GOP had ‘deemed’ the sigs were valid without checking if they went over 10,000/400 in that year.

None of the R signatures were actually checked in 2008 because they all met the VA GOP threshold.

See http://www.redstate.com/moe_lane/2011/12/26/did-the-va-gop-change-the-rules-on-primary-ballot-access-in-november-2011/

Remember, VA election law says that the political parties can decide to use whatever arbitrary rules they want to put a candidate on their respective ballots. The VA law only says the party *must also* include anyone who gets 10,000/400 sigs (’shall be included’).

What happened is that this Osborne guy sued in October that it was unfair the VA GOP wasn’t checking anybody’s sigs, so in response the VA GOP kicked the deem-and-pass limit from 10000/400 up to 15000/600 and published the undated latter.

See

[kabar]

And where did you come up with that fairy tale that signatures were never verified until this year? There has been lots of misinformation tossed out as fact. In the coming days, you will get the real facts as to what happened. Stay tuned.

[COBOL2Java]

And where did you come up with that fairy tale that signatures were never verified until this year?

Fairy tale, huh? [rolls eyes]

The FACT is that prior to this year, signatures were not verified. But sure, you go ahead and keep trolling for your bud Mitt.