I don’t think you Newt people really have to worry that much at all. If these early primaries (except NH) go the way their anticipated to, then it may not make a big difference.
March 6 is Super Tuesday#1. The Anti-Romney candidate is going to clean up this night. You have primaries in Tennessee, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas worth nearly 332 delegates that Romney will have a hard time winning much in. Additionally, there are Mar 6 caucuses in Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, and Wyoming where the Anti-Romney would most likely do well with strong Tea Party organization.
Romney’s saving grace for March 6 has been the Massachusetts and Vermont primaries, where he would be favored. Super Tuesday#1 is worth about 556 Delegates total, and even with a 50% majority win in VA, would only get Romney to around 108, including VT and MA. Add in some proportional delegates of the other state caucuses and primaries and he would only have about 150-160 delgates, while the Anti-Romney would pick up the other 390-400, plus.
After Michigan, the states get troubling for Romney until the month of April comes when the more liberal states start rolling in. By then though, the Anti-Romney should have a good head of steam making it more difficult.
You missed the news that TX was moved back to April 3.
So Super Tuesday is now MA, VT, VA, OH, GA, TN, OK, ND, ID, AK.
Romney should win VT, MA, VA. Someone else should win GA, TN, OK. OH I’m not sure about. The 3 caucus states of ND, ID, and AK could be up in the air althouh Romney won all 3 in 2008. ID is heavily mormon so he should be ok there.
And this is after February where Romney is poised to do extremely well. NV, MN, CO, ME, MI, AZ are all favorable towards him. As well as the caucus in WA on March 3 right before Super Tuesday. So he could well build up a huge cushion against some setbacks on Mar 6.
Will anyone care if Newt wins GA? TN and OK are farily small delegate wise.
The calendar is looking pretty good for Romney right about now.