The threat to Romney is based on polling data in Iowa showing him up around 20 percent along with Newt and Romney.
That puts Paul in the first tier.
“Paulbots” are known to be solid and loyal in polls while other candidates don’t have that solid level of support.
This is a volatile and fluid situation as many voters will make a last minute decision to support someone or could be swayed to change support at the last minute.
My analysis of the situation is serious, sober and drug-free.