It protects against two strains of HPV that account for 70% of all cancer from HPV, and it protects against two strains of HPV that account for 90% of all genital warts.
So, if you vaccinated the entire population of women (150 million), and if you believe that the unverified VAERS reports accurately reflect REAL side effects specifically caused by the shots, you would expect 382 women to die, another 220,000 to have serious side effects.
Now, HPV causes 70% of all cervical cancer. Gardasil prevents 70% of those, or about 49% of all cervical cancer. 3800 women die in the U.S. from cervical cancer each year, so if we vaccinated every woman, we could expect to save 1,900 lives a year, at a cost of 382 one-time deaths from the vaccine.
HPV-caused Genital Warts infect about 1% of the sexually active population, let’s say 100 million of our 150 million women are sexually active. That would give us 1 million cases of genital warts, of which Gardasil would prevent 900,000, at a cost of 220,000 serious side effects.
As to “100% of the time” protection, yes, if you are a Nun in a monestery, and completely protected from any chance of a man ever raping you, then you are 100% protected. If you are married, your husband might cheat on you, get infected, and infect you. That might be a low risk. If you aren’t married yet, your future husband might get infected, although I guess you could get your husband tested before deciding to marry.
So yes, if you don’t want to risk the vaccine, you can refrain from sex, or be very careful about it. That is a choice for a woman to make, and it’s good that there is a vaccine to give them that choice. You aren’t arguing that this is a reason to take the vaccine off the market, are you?
Hmm. You sound like either you are a statistician, or you are experienced with clinical research.
Anyway, I appreciate your statistical insights into the discussion. I must approach the discussion from the point of view of a basic researcher; I’m more familiar with the biology of the subject and actually helped with an HPV study. Since my statistical background mainly comes from having shared an office with a statistician, I’m familiar with the terminology but not necessarily the methodology.
“So, if you vaccinated the entire population of women (150 million), and if you believe that the unverified VAERS reports accurately reflect REAL side effects specifically caused by the shots, you would expect 382 women to die, another 220,000 to have serious side effects.”
Which is why it’s a good thing that Gardasil is untested on people. We are only just now catching the side effects of Gardasil.
“Now, HPV causes 70% of all cervical cancer. Gardasil prevents 70% of those, or about 49% of all cervical cancer. 3800 women die in the U.S. from cervical cancer each year, so if we vaccinated every woman, we could expect to save 1,900 lives a year, at a cost of 382 one-time deaths from the vaccine.”
If you vaccinated 80 percent of the population you’d see no appreciable decline in cervical cancer rates. So you’d see 350 women die and zero saved.
You’re not going to get 100 percent, Charles, not without making it mandatory. And you’re not going to be able to make the vaccine mandatory, when it’s not a communicable disease.
“As to “100% of the time” protection, yes, if you are a Nun in a monestery, and completely protected from any chance of a man ever raping you, then you are 100% protected.”
Which is why we need to make people have the shot, just so people can be sure that they are protected without having to care about whom they are having sex with.
“So yes, if you don’t want to risk the vaccine, you can refrain from sex, or be very careful about it. That is a choice for a woman to make,”
So the men don’t have any role in trasmission? Why then are we seeing the push to vaccinate men? If it’s not a man’s decision, then we should not be vaccinating them, especially given the negative side effects.