Ron Paul Takes Lead in New Iowa Caucuses Poll

Poll Watch Daily ^ | December 21, 2011 | Bruce Drake

[Cincinatus' Wife]

The Politico reported on Tuesday that some Iowa Republicans are worried that a Ron Paul victory in the state’s upcoming caucuses could damage its first-to-vote influence in future elections by anointing a candidate with little chance to win the GOP nomination and who is unrepresentative of the party. Whoever is angsting about that, can angst some more over a new poll showing Paul in first place.

Paul runs ahead of the GOP presidential pack with 27.5 percent support, followed by Newt Gingrich at 25.3 percent, Mitt Romney at 17.5 percent, Rick Perry at 11.2 percent and everyone else in single digits, according to an Iowa State University,Gazette,KCRG poll conducted Dec. 8-18. A little over 5 percent are undecided. the margin of error is 5 points.

Iowa State’s James McCormick, coordinator of the poll, said that while Paul’s lead is small, it may be more solid than it seems.

“What our poll says is that 51 percent of Paul’s supporters say they’re definitely backing him,” said McCormick. “The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 for Mitt Romney and 15.2 for Newt Gingrich. Moreover, the percentage of respondents ‘leaning to’ or ‘still undecided’ in their support for these latter two candidates remains high, at 58 percent for Gingrich and 38 percent for Romney. In other words, I’m going to make the case that these numbers are still very soft for those two candidates.”

Most Iowans who backed Herman Cain before he suspended his campaign have moved to Gingrich, with 38 percent making him their first choice. Twenty percent shifted to Paul, 14 percent to Perry and 8.5 percent to Romney.

Tea party movement members overwhelmingly back Gingrich, at 42.4 percent. Romney and Perry are tied at 12.1 percent each for their support, Michele Bachmann gets 10.6 percent and Paul gets 9.1 percent. The poll says about a fifth of likely caucus-goers are tea party movement adherents.

[ScottinVA]

volumnes=volumes

[Cincinatus' Wife]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2823675/posts#1

I miss America too. She’s still there — she just needs to come out of hiding.

[Tribune7]

He has NO chance of winning the nomination

He has a great chance of being a spoiler. If he gets 10-20 percent in each primary that's 10-20 percent some other small gov. guy isn't going to get.

[ken5050]

As I have said often, after Iowa, when Bachmann and Santorum drop out, there is really no place else for their supporters..primarily evangelicals..to go, EXCEPT to Perry.

Thus the NEW MATH: 7.4 + 11.2 + 4.9 + 23.5%

Rick be lookin' good..

[EternalVigilance]

How polling works on Republican primary voters

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Yes he do!

[John D]

No Republican should give Paul their precious vote.

No Republican would ever vote for the surrender monkey. The only people who will vote for him are the far leftists who want to see America's military destroyed and the pot heads who think he will legalize drugs.
Republicans do not hate America. Cut and Run and his band of surrender monkeys are the ones who do.

[mikhailovich]

The problem with Ron Paul if he wins Iowa is it will create uncertainty going into NH and SC. I hate to think this way, but he paves the way for a Romney nomination. If Ron Paul wins Iowa, most likely Romney wins NH. By then, the recent rise of Gingrich and to a lesser degree, Perry, will be viewed as futile. These guys can't win it now. We better focus squarely on Romney. Voters will gravitate to the person with the "most" success coming out of Iowa, NH, and SC. That's gonna be Romney. He will finish somewhere between 2nd and 3rd (at the worst) in each of those states.

Ron Paul is going to ruin this for anyone supporting Gingrich or Perry. Or Bachmann or Santorum, for that matter. This is a huge problem and I'm afraid we'll look back at him being the main reason we failed. This is on the back of Iowans and I pray they will realize what they're about to do and shift their support.

See, this is where the "Iowa doesn't really matter that much" sentiment is a problem. If someone other than Paul or Romney had say 40% of the support in successive states, I'd feel a lot better.

[Irish Eyes]

http://www.lifeandlibertyreport.com/5/post/2011/12/how-polling-works-on-republican-primary-voters.html

Thanks EternalVigilance !! That link is amazing and gives a really good lesson....sheep

[ScottinVA]

I miss America too. She’s still there — she just needs to come out of hiding.

Tough to do when she's comatose and nearing death, though...