Paul winning Iowa would deliver the nomination to Romney.
I have a different take. Romney is outspending everyone, what, 35 to 1, I heard, and he still can't win Iowa? He'll probably go on to win NH, but if he doesn't make a strong showing there, he's still going to look bad. Then it's on to SC and Florida. If Romney can't buy Iowa, he for darn sure can't buy SC and Florida. And Paul sure won't.