Let’s say Ron Paul wins Iowa. Mitt Romney wins NH. Newt wins SC and Fla. Who is in the lead? Newt. Next up Nevada where Newt has been polling well. I still like Newt to win this thing. But unfortunately, negative ads rather than substance are winning out in Iowa and if that carries from state to state - then I really give up. If this poll is accurate, Iowans either don’t care enough to pay attention or like to be told who to vote for and are too lazy to think for themselves. RON PAUL LEFT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND SHOULD BE RUNNING AS THE LIBERTARIAN PARTY NOMINEE AND WOULD WAIT FOR IRAN TO GET A NUKE UNDER THE NAIVE NOTION THAT IT’S SIMPLY NOT OUR BUSINESS, YET HE’S LEADING THE POLL. YOU MUST BE KIDDING.
You're right about who would be in the lead by the time Nevada rolls around. But giving up is exactly the goal of the pollsters and establishment. Republicans don't like Romney, period. This isn't a general election, it's Republicans so the pollsters know they can't put Romney on top because it would be even more laughable than to have Paul on top. We have to hope that conservatives vote rather than give up which is exactly what the goal is.