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The last projection I saw was they would switch to natural gas in 20 years and run that for 40+ years. That is IF no new exploration areas are opened, then the need a second pipeline to carry gas.

They are only drilling a 25 mile by 50 to 65 mile section of what is a +/-900 mile by 200 mile field. The Dems have so far blocked further opening of new areas.

The field started at 1.4 million barrels per day...

Maintenance is another factor. The facilities have reached the design life and are being refurbished during temporary down times. That negatively effects the production rates when they are not running because of repairs.

Alyeska has completed a comprehensive Low Flow Impact Study (LoFIS) on behalf of the TAPS owners. The study evaluated the potential risks associated with declining throughput and lower oil temperatures and identified mitigation measures.

The LoFIS identified potential challenges with throughput levels between 600,000 and 300,000 barrels per day (BPD). Potential challenges include:

Water, present in oil as small droplets, is expected to separate out in a layer at the bottom of the pipe at 500,000 BPD and lower. Separated water will increase the potential for ice formation and corrosion.

Wax build up in the pipeline is present at current throughput levels and will continue to increase as throughput declines.

As throughput drops below 550,000 BPD, oil temperature will have the potential to drop below the freezing point of water and form ice in the pipeline during the winter months. Ice could damage pumps and equipment.

Crude oil temperatures at 350,000 BPD could allow soils surrounding buried sections of the pipeline to freeze, which would create the potential for ice lenses. Ice lenses could cause movement and damage the pipeline via frost heaves.

Mitigation measures recommended in the study include:

- Minimize the impact of temperature decline by adding heat and insulation.

- Modify the water and temperature specifications for crude oil entering TAPS.

- Adjust the pipeline pigging program as throughput declines

http://www.alyeska-pipe.com/Inthenews/LowFlow/LowFlow.html

Unacceptable pipe displacement limits and possible overstress conditions in the pipe would be reached at a flow volume of 300,000 BPD.

Lots more detail available at the link.

I looked into it once and was told the pipeline gets closed down in the vicinity of 300,000 barrels or less.

This is so sad when there is so much oil up there and we are not allowed to drill for it!! Let's hope we knock the regime out next year.There's lots riding on it.

Those who think Keystone will actually get started in the US as zero has promised are being duped once again.Zero will never actually allow it to happen,IMHO. He will come up with excuse after excuse why he can't get it started,that's a promise. We have been rolled again.