He, alas, ran into the other guy who thought that ~ Lyndon Baines Johnson.
LBJ thought, as did Goldwater, and myself, and others who've thought much about it, that the American electorate is organized into a Bi Modal Saddle. There is no broad middle, and there are no moderates.
There are simply two poles, each formed up a bit differently from the other one, and surrounded by a very thin "FRINGE".
Most politicians who imagine a broad middle fail to realize they are making their appeal to an exceedingly thin "FRINGE" which yields no votes.
Skipping beyond the differences in organization structure of each pole, let's get to the meat ~ how you win an election. First, you must secure your own voting base in your pole. Then, you strive to peal off a faction on the other pole. That doesn't mean you "go to the left" or "go to the right". It means you identify a special interest group or class in the other pole and demonstrate that you serve their interests better than the other guys ~ at least for this election.
That's pretty much LBJ's contribution to the theory BTW. All needed to win was all the Democrats PLUS some Republicans. Richard Nixon picked up on this and finally won by keeping ALL Republicans in line and picking off Southernerners with higher education or businesses.
Ronald Reagan attracted the active practicing Roman Catholics ~ of whom there are millions of people who vote religiously (that's a pun).
All the while these winners kept their base and did permanent damage to the others. LBJ, for instance, pulled in a substantial part of a former hunk of the Republican base, the black voters. Nixon's attraction of the Southern ownership classes managed to make that a permanent loss.
Obama won ONLY because he pulled back a chunk of the RC vote (white liberal guilt ~ they know better now) while keeping 100% of the Democrat base.
In the next election Republicans retrieve 100% of the ownership class, all of the RC voters they've ever gotten before, and keep their base. Obama loses the ownership class folks, probably YOUTH because they are the people who are unnaturally left UNEMPLOYED or employed in dead end jobs with no chance for advancement, and he may well lose even the Hispanics because even they can see how utterly devoid of ideas he is ~ the man's like the politicians they or their parents left behind.
It is up to the Republicans to capitalize on this situation. Best bet is to NOT run a candidate who sounds like Romney, or who has done the same things Obama did ~ e.g. BS Healthcare programs that bankrupt states and nations.
Anybody else can win.
The above is a fantasy, not a reality. Sorry.
Just anecdotally, on a personal level, I know only at most 3-4 people who AREN'T in the broad middle, politically, and many dozens who are in the middle.
The number of those who are fiscal conservatives but social liberals, especially, in the country ALONE is vast - and there are plenty of other types of people in the "Mushy Middle."
The only way someone could convince themselves of the falsehood that there are no moderates is someone who only sits at their computer and reads FR and DU, and think that the posters represent the country.
I think it’s a bit simpler/ You run as the incumbent party in a good economy or as the out party in a bad economy. that usually helps.
Obama won only because of white guilt? I don’t think so.
I think W’s 25% approval rating, the worst economic meltdown since the Depression, the near 70% disapproval of Iraq, and Obama’s 400 million dollar spending edge all helped more than white guilt.
Lets face it, no Republican was going to win in 2008 after the economy collapsed. If the economy stayed as it was before Labor Day and W was even at 40% McCain likely wins.
With W at 25% and everything else going on he had no chance.
Next year will come down to economy. If by the fall it’s seen as improving and getting better, Obama will win against anyone. If unemployment is down at 8% or even below he’ll win. If it’s seen as getting worse and it’s back up around 9% or higher, he’ll lose. To anyone.
That’s really what it will come down to.