Iowa picked GHW Bush over Reagan in 1980.. Dole over GHW Bush in 1988 and Huckabee in 2008.. kind of an irrelevant state in regards to picking the nominee
Your Post #11 makes a valid point.
“Iowa picked GHW Bush over Reagan in 1980.. Dole over GHW Bush in 1988 and Huckabee in 2008.. kind of an irrelevant state in regards to picking the nominee”
the difference this time though is that Romney was not expected to win Iowa. If he pulls off a win no matter how close (or even comes in second) it will give him an advantage in some of the earlier states with the good press that follows. Particularly NH. That being said the race is still fluid and looking at the numbers even Ron Paul could pull off the upset here - only poll that counts is election day.
Iowa is very relevant this year. With Romney almost assured of winning New Hampshire, Iowa provides the best chance of boosting an alternative that can beat him. If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he'll likely be unstoppable.
Except neither Bush, Dole, or Huckabee won New Hampshire after Iowa. An Iowa win and a New Hampshire win back to back would melt the field.
Iowa and NH don’t matter that much. When Newt gets into SC he will be kicking butt....hopefully. The Iowa caucus should be done away with.