Ah, well, we'll see what actually happens on primary day.
Caucuses are much different than elections. You can't mail in your vote, you can't drop by any time to cast your ballot. You have to commit a couple of hours and listen to people advocate for one candidate or another. Pure numbers don't mean as much. The level of commitment is also important.
Given the determination of his supporters, how much effort he has put in, and his past successes in Iowa; being in second and within 10 points, Ron Paul is still not the favorite, but he is in shooting distance of winning Iowa. It would not surprise me at all.
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Ron Paul’s supporters will all be on Winter break from school, and at home...
If you discount Ron Paul as a legitmate force for the eventual nomination (and I do), this would mean that Perry is actually second.
He’s in Dallas today raising money for the long haul.