Tonight’s Debate Predictions and Advice (Most Likely Outcomes)
Mitt Romney will get the first question out of the gate and it will be with the moderators trying to start a confrontation between him and Newt. The moderators absolutely won’t ask Newt the first question in an attempt to draw him in after Romney, because they know Newt won’t take the bait and will turn it around on the debate moderators. If Newt’s allowed to do this, then Romney will be foolish to attack because it will be looked at very negatively. So to give Romney the first strike advantage, the moderators will ask him the first question. We’ll then quickly find out if Team Romney has opted to sit back and be safe, or to go on the offensive. My bet is on the latter. That will put pressure on a more confrontational Gingrich response. Depending on Michele or Paul’s projected attacks on Gingrich, if Romney is not getting any traction, he might just leave it to them to do, and try to remain in that calm, boring state the MSM always praises him on.
However, if the debate moderators can’t get Romney and Gingrich fighting, they will most likely turn to Michele Bachmann. Her first question out of the gate will most likely be dealing with comments she made about calling Gingrich a “frugal socialist”. The debate moderator will target the question in regards to Newt and it will be up to Michele to add Romney or face criticism of not going after him. My guess is that Michele’s staffers finally realize they aren’t going to have those projected jobs in the Romney campaign and that it’s all or nothing now for Michele and that she has to strike back. Some of her attacks will definitely stick, but many people will still accuse her of violating Reagan’s 11th Commandment.
For giggles, the moderator will turn to Ron Paul for a pile-on of Gingrich, which Paul will most likely take the bait. Paul will probably get a question on his opinion in regards to what his son Rand said about Newt “not being a conservative”.
Rick Perry should just sit back, give coherent messages, don’t have a brain fart, and when the time is right, drop a Gingrich-line about staying above the fray. Perry doesn’t really need to attack Gingrich or Romney tonight, he should leave that to Bachmann, Paul, and Santorum.
Rick Santorum is going to hit Romney and Gingrich hard, probably on TARP, but look for him to go after Bachmann, Paul, and even possibly Perry as he tries to tout himself as the right conservative choice in the race.
Newt doesn’t need debate advice, though I will say this. In his anticipated confrontational dialogues with Mitt, he needs to look Mitt straight in the eye when speaking. If he’s exceptionally bold, he should find a way to tell Romney to wipe that smirk off his face when Romney pulls his now (in)famous strare-down. (Maybe not as brash as the Baez-Ashton incident from the Casey Anthony Trial), but you get the point.
In the end, this could be the defining night for Gingrich. He will be facing a barrage of attacks on his record from just about everyone on that stage in addition to the debate moderators. If, at the end of the night, he truly survives unscathed and doesn’t suffer a meltdown, then more debates probably aren’t going to make a difference.
If Newt flops under pressure though, then things get interesting. Despite the fact Romney might get some positive attacking points on Gingrich, the reality is it is unlikely to win him any votes. If Bachmann gets her argument across well, she could stand to gain, but if it’s too far out there like the HPV episode, it could negate whatever advantage it would have created. As a person that says we deserved what we got on 9/11, Ron Paul should not be taken seriously, end of story. If Santorum’s attacks stick, he might be in a position for a later surge because he has an upcoming Lincoln-Douglas debate with Gingrich, in addition to a possible one on one in the Trump debate if it’s still held. Santorum could really stand to gain, but like Bachmann, might get criticized if he attacks too negatively, although to his credit, he has gone after just about everyone on stage equally. Rick Perry doesn’t really seem to be going anywhere. He seems best to stay out of the attacks. If everyone else on stage does damage to Newt, but all Bachmann, Santorum, Paul, and Romney seen as negative, then Perry could benefit.
My guess is because we are just a little over 3 weeks away from the first contest, things are going to get heated tonight. Time is running out. It’s kind of like in 1998, when Florida State back-doored its way into the National Championship Game in Football. That season, UCLA, Kansas State, and Tennessee were all undefeated and ahead of one-loss Florida State on the last week of the season. According to Bowden “I said men, We need to keep winning just in case. What if those other guys lost?”. Then on the last week, Bowden said “here we are. This is it. If they don’t lose now, they’re not gonna lose”. UCLA and Kansas State suffered heartbreaking losses that allowed FSU to play for the National Championship.
He can still win the nomination. Bachmann and Santorum will drop out, or be effectively out, after the caucus. Cain's out. These three have between 20-30% of the vote, depending on which state..add to Perry's own + or - 10%, and if he is able to capture the majority of the CBS (Cain/Bachmann/Santorum) evangelical vote, then he can go into SC with a solid 35% of the vote...Mittens will be finished after NH and SC..and it will be a two man race in Florida, Perry and Newt...
I think your analysis in on the money. But what question: Could you provide details - and maybe a link - on Santorum’s “upcoming Lincoln-Douglas debate with Gingrich”?
Because I never heard of it.
Romney going first, given a chance to attack Newt — a good theory, except I can’t envision Romney starting out that way. He’s really not good at frontal attack and initiating same. They’ll need a very leading question.
Bachmann on the other hand would kneecap Newt without an invitation. So would Ron Paul!
Damn! That was so detailed and realistic I think I’ll skip the debate and watch that ‘99 Fiesta Bowl. Naw, on second thought the Vols pulled that one off…
All candidates will be medicated tonight.
Paul will say something, while channeling Gandhi, that makes the cameraman shake his head.
Rick S will remind us of our need for moral clarity.
Michelle will (man I hope she doesn’t wear that Russian outfit) try to piss everyone off.
Perry will be awake most of the debate.
Romney will move about to get just the right light on that hair.
At Some Point Newt will, with clarity, dramatically coin a new exceptionally bold substantive idea that will fundamentally and monumentally alter the transformation of the eco-political landscape. Or, in other words, he will numb the moderators and leave the others nodding their heads.
I think there is a bet amongst tonights Newt-bashers; the first to nod yes to a Newt response is O U T!
I think you might be spot on. I just want Newt NOT to back down. Not to apoligize for anything, and certainly not to take bait and drop to the pathetic Romney attack dog attitude.
Newt should be above all of this. Americans love a winner. The enemy is not on stage. The enemy is Obama. I pray Newt will keep with the message that’s worked and that is to attack Obama.
Basically, there is not much difference between Romney and Newt. I think those of us on FR feel that NEwt is best equipped to speak frankly and clearly regarding the distinction between our side and Obama’s side.
This man is not my president. He doesn’t speak for me...
Good analysis, parksstp.
I agree with you that Newt needs to look Romney in the eye. Can someone send him that memo? :-)
Wonderful recap!