Posted on 12/04/2011 8:17:05 PM PST by Kaslin
In Unemployment Rate Dips to 8.6% as 487,000 Drop Out of Labor Force I presented some quick facts on the drop in the unemployment rate.
In the entire history of the labor force data, only in 1951, 1961, 1964, and 2009 did the labor force "shrink". It also "shrank" in 2011 off 2010. Also note that from 1964 to 2007, only in 1991 at 631,000, 1995 at 723,000 and 2002 at 801,000 did the labor force fail to add more than 1,000,000 people.Thanks Tim!
However, in 2008 the labor force only expanded by 776,000. This was followed by a loss of 826,000 in 2009, a trivial gain of 155,000 in 2010 and a loss of 67,000 in 2011.
If you look at the average labor force growth from 1948 to 2007 of 1,579,000 the labor force should have expanded by 6,316,000 2008-2011. Instead the labor force expanded by a mere 38,000!
Thus, 6,278,000 people are unaccounted for in the unemployment numbers based on historical averages.
The final graph takes the adjusted data and calculates the unemployment number off the adjusted workforce and those that actually have jobs. The unemployment numbers using this historical trend method show the following numbers for November in these years:
Unemployment Rate Adjusted for Population Growth
2007 4.7%
2008 7.3%
2009 11.7%
2010 12.4%
2011 12.2%
I am sure it is just coincidence, but it is interesting to note that the flat lining of the labor force began in earnest with the Obama administration.
Tim
John Galt will not be applying for unemployment insurance.
Smoke and mirrors, folks. Keep the employed thinking that we’re on an upswing, try to evoke feelings of relief, increase spending.
Reality is a cruel mistress. Ladies and gentlemen, this is Weimar Germany. This is only the beginning.
Good stuff. I do believe we have a government that is desperately trying to present as positive a picture of the economy as possible. It has as much to do with the crumbling of the system as politics, although, politics certainly is part of it.
Personally, I don’t see an escape from what lies ahead.
Something similar was posted on Zero Hedge by a George Mason economist who appears on Fox a bunch.
Http://confoundedinterest.wrdpress.com
Make sense that there might be a little bump before and during the holidays. Followed by a drop after.
Interesting stats. So what are all of those people doing — are they retired? Given up on trying to find a job?
Neither are very good, but better than the old Soviet/Chinese/Cambodian/Iraqi/communist et al. method of population adjustment.
Ah, brings back memories of that master magician FDR. Happy days are here again ....
I don’t care what kind of Enron style accounting practices this adminstration uses, the unemployment rate isn’t improving.
What happenes after the first of the year when all the seasonal help is no longer needed?
Will they just lump them into some other group that doesn’t get counted as actually unemployed? Because that’s what they are doing. They are grouping unemployed persons together into different groups so they can separate them out from the actual unemployed and adjust the numbers to reflect the difference.
In reality, the umemployment rate as tracked prior to WWII, is probably around 18%.
Ump. b
personally, I moved to disability. I fell and fractured my spine needing surgery I am still looking at jobs, but nothing out there.
We bring in 1.2 million LEGAL immigrants every year.
That’s got to be what they are doing - everyone is being grouped differently...
ya’ got your paid unemployed and your unpaid unemployed.....your happy part-timers and your unhappy part-timers....intended early retirees and unintended early retirees....
And don’t forget those “people who give up looking for work” (what a strange phrase that is) you know...all those people who have lucrative trust funds/sigh...because I doubt the “people who give up looking” are being counted continuously.
Oh, and are they counting welfare people as unemployed? I bet not - and they are....
Preaching to the Conservative Choir does not change any minds. We already know the truth. Liberals control a major part of the flow of information and the average Joe still only sees 8.6% Unemployment down from 9% on Obama’s watch.
The Obama mantra for the next year will be that Congress (The Republican controlled House, not the Democrat controlled Senate BTW), is responsible for all the ills that the American People face.
You never hear that Harry Reid has blocked just about every Economic Bill coming out of the House, while Obama is pulling the Trumanesque “do nothing Congress” BS so he is seen as the poor guy who is just doing his best for the little people while getting no respect.
The day after the 2012 Election will show us the intelligence of the Electorate or it will expose the level of Contempt, Envy and Hatred that they have for their fellow Americans.
Since the Seven Deadly Sins have now become the platform of the modern Democrat Party, America as we have known it will end up being a dark empty shell under their continued stewardship.
In my 58 years on this earth, I would never have thought that possible.
bump for later use
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