It comes down to math. Emotions are easy to try to run with, but it’s math we have to deal with.
Let’s start with the easy one: Palin. The math is she has already missed filing deadlines in too many States. She is out.
Now we move on to Bachmann, Santorum, and Huntsman. Less than 10% polling in all major States, they are out.
Ron Paul has 15 to 18% of the polls. He has his section, but he won’t win any State. He is the wildcard (where will his support slosh around?).
So we now needs to look at Cain, Perry, Gingrich, and Romney.
Cain has hit a ceiling of around 27%. I don’t think he can get much higher in any of his polls.
Romney has a very hard cap of 30% in the polls. His only chance is winning a plurality where 30% slips over the top. He absolutely must win New Hampshire plus either Iowa or South Carolina in order to move that cap up.
Perry has plenty of money, good organization, and people lined up to endorse him... if he can prove he can win. He needs a win. He needs it bad. If he doesn’t end up in 2nd in either New Hampshire or Iowa, he is done.
Gingrich has the momentum. He is raising funds and he has timed his “peak” at the right time. If he wins Iowa, and he comes in second in New Hampshire, the he removes Perry from the race and probably Cain as well. If Romney has to run one on one against Gingrich, Gingrich wins the nomination hands down.
Of course we have 5 weeks before Iowa, and that is like 5 lifetimes in the world of politics. But this is my view as of this moment.
It comes down to math. Emotions are easy to try to run with, but it’s math we have to deal with.
Let’s start with the easy one: Palin. The math is she has already missed filing deadlines in too many States. She is out.
Now we move on to Bachmann, Santorum, and Huntsman. Less than 10% polling in all major States, they are out.
Ron Paul has 15 to 18% of the polls. He has his section, but he won’t win any State. He is the wildcard (where will his support slosh around?).
So we now needs to look at Cain, Perry, Gingrich, and Romney.
Cain has hit a ceiling of around 27%. I don’t think he can get much higher in any of his polls.
Romney has a very hard cap of 30% in the polls. His only chance is winning a plurality where 30% slips over the top. He absolutely must win New Hampshire plus either Iowa or South Carolina in order to move that cap up.
Perry has plenty of money, good organization, and people lined up to endorse him... if he can prove he can win. He needs a win. He needs it bad. If he doesn’t end up in 2nd in either New Hampshire or Iowa, he is done.
Gingrich has the momentum. He is raising funds and he has timed his “peak” at the right time. If he wins Iowa, and he comes in second in New Hampshire, the he removes Perry from the race and probably Cain as well. If Romney has to run one on one against Gingrich, Gingrich wins the nomination hands down.
Of course we have 5 weeks before Iowa, and that is like 5 lifetimes in the world of politics. But this is my view as of this moment.