Studying this from all angles since day one. conclusion: Romney wins. Reason: conservatives will never settle on the only person with a breath of chance to win the primary. Looking at the second rate folks running, I don’t see anyone in that pack who has anything going for them except Newt. He does have baggage, but nothing that can’t be overcome by his intellect. Splitting the conservative vote will hand the primary to Mitt in every state. It’s either Newt or Romney unless Sarah somehow trumps the system.
You may be happy with either “Romney or Newt”, I myself will keep working for an actual conservative candidate, of which we have quite a few.
Everyone wants conservatives to unite behind one candidate.
However, everybody also wants that to be THEIR candidate.
Eventually one of the candidates will win. You may be right that if all the conservatives split their vote, it will leave Romney sittin’ pretty, but what can we do?
I can’t switch over to Cain. I can’t support Newt with all my heart although I would vote for him.
I can’t convince everyone to vote for Perry even though he’s obviously the best candidate.
So what can we do? It may end up being Newt.
I’ll don’t know. At least Newt can ‘appear’ to be an alternative. Mitt’s just an old crustier, stiffer, whiter version of hussein in my book. And I think he’ll be eviscerated by the lib press and pundits.