Rasmussen is the standard and worth checking every day. I too have watched the rise coming. This Obama guy can get over 50% in 2012, if we are not careful. After all, it is only briefly that he polls, at Ras, under 45. This means with a little tomfoolery he can, in a pinch, rouse up 6% by next November.
This past 10 days sees Perry’s fall and Cain’s peaking and neither has been helpful. These events leave then the spot light on Santorum and Bachman and Gingrich. The first two are seen as too “extreme”, and Newt will get a baggage hit next. This leaves Romney standing. Romney is a bore and an empty suit.
People are voting their pocket book, and if we can’t come up with a fluent, tried and proven conservative candidate who does ECONOMICS and JOBS, and who doesn’t make everyone cringe, we are going to get Romney. Expect that the Perry bashing has sold voters on Romney, I’m afraid.
How much difference is there between Romney and Obama? Heck, that’s why polls in the know are seen this week to be betting on Obama.
Another matter that gets overlooked as well... part of that current 49% disapproval includes hardcore libs who don't think he's gone far ENOUGH toward setting America down the path of destruction. They'll bitch up and down about how much of a "disappointment" Obama has been in terms of not delivering the "change" they demanded in 2008, but they'll fall in line... they always do.
It's also important to know the "disappointment" factor permeates not only the left. The most recent FoxNews poll found 52% say they like Obama's ideas, but are disappointed many of them haven't been passed by Congress. The fact many haven't been passed is viewed as good news by FReepers, but we aren't representative of the public at large. We're far more conservative in philosophy.
We're going to know on the morning of the first Wednesday next November as to whether America chose the path of prosperity and freedom, vs. one of government ownership of our lives and future. While I'm not swayed by a single poll result, what I do consider are trends... and the trends show a disturbingly high percentage of Americans aren't quite ready to give up on Obama.
No post-WWII president in the modern era has ever been re-elected with unemployment at 9%. Or 8%. Or 7.5%.
7.7% beat Ford. 7.5% (helped) beat Carter. 7.4% beat Bush I.
There is Zero chance Bobo can get unemployment under 8% by Election Day. Even if he did manage 8.1% or 8.2%, the largest entrenched unemployment/underemployment in the modern era is going to knock him out.