I made this excel spreadsheet today to show Romney is still short delegates, even if he takes all the traditional blue-liberal states.
Provided the Tea Party is active at states holding caucuses, we should be okay, especially if we consolidate around a candidate early. However, Romney won’t exit, even if he doesn’t do well in Feb/Mar because of the April primaries that favor him, as well as the Jun 5 Cal/NJ primaries.
After IA, NV, NH, SC and FL have voted we will know many things that we can’t know now. I expect that the top three vote-getters at that point will be Cain, Mitt and Newt with Cain well ahead of Newt.
If that is correct then we Cainiacs can then approach our conservative brethren and start discussing with them their need for a come-to-Herman experience.
If the fact are different from this then the conversation will be different.
No, Mitt will never drop out no matter what. He will compete with organization, energy, and scads of money in every primary.
We will have to beat him long and hard.