I’m thinking that since it’s 51 days (counting today) until the Iowa Caucuses, anything can still happen. 51 days in politics is an eternity. After the Iowa Caususes, I think you will see 4 candidates still in the race and polls will start to mean something then, and only then. I predict the survivors of Iowa will be: Romney, Gingrich, Cain and Paul. Possibly one more; who might do better in Iowa than people think he will, Rick Santorum. Then, NH and SC will weed out all but two. From there, I’m thinking it will be Romney and Newt or Romney and Cain. Paul will still be a player, but an insignificant one. Then, polls will take on a new meaning.
Comments? Anyone?
I think Perry will stick with it at least until South Carolina, but if he doesn’t win anything by Florida he is out.
It would be VERY good if Perry dropped out before Texas votes, because Cain could pick up more delegates here than all the previous likely primary wins of Romney combined, and Romney polls really bad here low single digits.
I tend to think your analysis is spot on. I would add that I’d like to see Newt stick around a while, but I wonder where his money will be coming from.
The other thing is, when people DO start dropping out, where does there money go? And of course, the wild card is Palin. If she supports anyone, what effect will that have.
I wonder, since she ran with a Rino, will she support another Rino. If she were to endorse Romney, I wonder what impact that would have? (besides causing a few vessels to burst!)