Russia Expects N.Korea to Collapse by 2020

Chosun Ilbo ^ | 11/04/11

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[emax]

So there’s a honest to God chance we’ll collapse before North Korea ? Well that’s just **&&ing great

[TigerLikesRooster]

Does your screen name have anything to do with text editor program “emacs?” I am just curious.:-)

[tanuki]

Is there any chance that China could absorb NK? Possibly as an autonomous zone or client state?

[emax]

Actually it does, I am working on computer programming right now, that is where it comes from

[justa-hairyape]

Now in the North Korean situation, a strong case could be made that the problem was and still is the 1 %.

Funny how that just so happens to be a socialist/communist country. Also funny how it appears that most of the OWS's actually reside in very pricey cribs.

The irony.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Also funny how it appears that most of the OWS's actually reside in very pricey cribs.

They might do good just by lounging on a yacht than making faux display of "conscience."

[Cronos]

I don’t think so. For one, the Koreans north and south realize that absorption into china means the utter destruction of their self-identity. For another, the Chinese don’t want the mess that North Korea is — also, getting a radical communist state would only be a problem for the chinese oligarchy. they would prefer to have this stick to wag at the west — that they control but pretend to not control

[Recovering_Democrat]

NK has collapsed. The shell is being kept intact by China. I pray for the people of that nation.

[Jonty30]

It was inevitable.

It was just a question as to whether it would be as peaceful as Germany’s reunification or whether there is going to be a mass slaughter leading up to it.

This will be good for the US economy too, as America will be able to save billions because the demiliterized zone can finally be shut down.

[jakerobins]

Inevitable?? LOL.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oi_5AKZCa0

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Agree.
Koreans, both North and South, consider themselves a unique race in Asia.

[Cronos]

I didn't know that! They're like the Japanese or Han Chinese in that regard

Aren't they just descended of Altaic peoples? related to Mongols, Evenks, etc?

[af_vet_rr]

The leadership crisis will lead to a power struggle between "bureaucrats" with foreign business connections and "military and security officials" with no outside links, the report said.

I predict that will be bloody.

[Mount Athos]

How about some contingency planning for China doing something other than idly watching and accepting the unification?

Last time they were nearly unified, China sent an incredible number of troops over the border and kicked our ass.

Oh but they’ve changed now, they’re gentle as little lambs right?

[hattend]

IMEMO forecast reunified Korea to see annual GDP growth of 3.5 percent before reunification (2011-2020), 2 percent during the process of reunification (early 2020s) and 5-6 percent in the final stage (late 2020s). The think tank projected that reunification would lay the groundwork for a new leap for the Korean economy.

Seems optimistic. I seem to remember that Germany's reunification really dragged down "west" Germany's economy for almost a decade. And "east" Germany was nowhere near as bad a shape as the Norks.

[AdmSmith]

They are way too optimistic: IMEMO forecast reunified Korea to see annual GDP growth of 3.5 percent before reunification (2011-2020), 2 percent during the process of reunification (early 2020s) and 5-6 percent in the final stage (late 2020s). The think tank projected that reunification would lay the groundwork for a new leap for the Korean economy.

GDP(USD) population GDP/capita
North 28.2 bn, 24.0 M, 1 200
South 1164 bn, 48.9 M, 23 800

GDP per capita South/North = 19.8 !

If we assume a peaceful collapse and then a reunification I would guess that the employment figures for North would be 10-20 % (i.e unemployment 80 - 90 %) the first year, then it will slowly go up to 50-60 % employment. Since the total population in N is about 50 % of S, this gives a total unemployment figure in the region of 30 % or so for the combined country.

The employment figures for North would not be higher than 70 % of the figures for the South for many many years. North has to replace its workforce that has irreparable damages in their brains due to malnutrition. Add the lack of normal education.

So the GDP of North will shrink some 40 % the first 2 (?) years and then the investments from South will slowly increase it by the fantastic figure of say 8 % the coming years. In order to get 50 % of the South GDP per capita it will then take about 40 years ( 1.08**37 = 20/0.6 x 50 %)

This assumes that South has 0 growth, if South is growing at 3 % then it will take about 60 years until North will have 50 % of the Southern economy and about 76 years until they have the same. This is about two generations of Norks.

A difficult task.

[AdmSmith]

here http://www.cireq.umontreal.ca/personnel/hunt_german_unification.pdf is the story for Germany.

[Terry Mross]

Obviously Russia doesn’t believe in the Mayan prophecy.