I once created a program to predict the NFL draft. It assigned grades to various players according to their skills and sutibilty for each team's needs.
It produced wonderful mock drafts that were actually featured on several high-profile draft websites. It only had one shortcomming: It was never right.
Some things just can't be quantified down to a formula. Politics is one of them.
I have to thank Herman Cain, because he’s “outed” a lot of the so-called conservative pundits for who they really are. Watching O’Reilly and Laura Ingram tonight was almost nauseating ...and the rest of them must be totally wetting their pants.
I’ve often recommended Tony Blair’s political memoire, “My Journey.” Fascinating on several levels.
One of the observations he makes there that really made an impression on me:
“Mood always trumps politics.”
Basically, there is this mostly unquantifiable force called the “mood of the country.” It has a mind and will of its own, so to speak, and it defies (or at least operates separately from) political convention.
In the draft, it’s probably comparable to that last piece of the puzzle, the gut instinct about a player.
The reason draft prediction models are so often wrong is the same reason political convention can be wrong: gut instinct/mood of the country trumps all.
I see this in 2008: the mood of the country led to the election of Obama, despite the fact that on the political fundamentals he was already a disaster.