By his own admission, Cain has absolutely no ground game in IA or NH. Maybe some focus should be put there first.
How’s he doing in PA?
Why?
Iowa has few delegates, and only 50% of the time does the GOP winner go on to get the nomination. It really is meaningless for the GOP (it is a great predictor for Democrats, though).
New Hampshire’s record isn’t much better. McCain won in 2000, Buchannan in 1996. Plus, Romney is pouring money into New Hampshire.
Cain just needs a good showing in these states, and I think he’ll do that if leading in the national polls.
Cain’s breakout should come in Florida and Carolina.
I’ve always wondered about the Iowa, New Hampshire strategy — concentrating all your money and effort in two tiny northern states just so that you can say you’ve won in two tiny states in the North. Florida is an important swing state and there are about four times the voters in Florida than Iowa and New Hampshire combined.
However, if one of the first two states were Ohio, I would be agreeing with you right now.