[political1]

He is ahead in the polls in Iowa. If he can win in Florida and South Carolina. The others would surely drop out after the first month. Romney wins New Hampshire, and Nevada. That leaves a two man race to the convention. Just a prediction, but as good as any.

[Vigilanteman]

Basically, I agree. Except to say that Iowa is even more worthless than New Hampshire. The sample is far too small to have any real validity. New Hampshire, as a primary state, has a much larger sample but crossover voting is endemic. If I were in New Hampshire, I'd register as an Independent as well. It gives you the opportunity to vote in your party's primary when there is a real contest or screw up the other party's contest when there isn't.

Make no mistake about it: almost all Independents lean one way or the other despite what they might tell you.

South Carolina, of course, if a fairly good barometer for the nomination because it such a reliably Republican state. It is a poor barometer for the election for precisely the same reason.

That's why it all comes down to Florida. It is both a swing state (like New Hampshire and Iowa) and a closed primary state (like South Carolina). If Cain wins big here, I don't see anyway how Romney can continue his campaign. If Perry screws it up enough to make it a three way contest, then you'll have a slug fest which stretches beyond Super Tuesday. That won't be good for the GOP or good for the country.