af_vet_rr, Better news than that. I’ve been tracking Intrade since last Sunday, and here is what happened:
Question:
In chances - Who will win the Republican nomination?
Sunday, October 16, 2011 - Morning
Romney: 67.3%
Perry: 14%
Cain: 7.9%
Monday, October 17, 2011 - Morning
Romney: 67.7%
Perry: 13.5%
Cain: 9.3%
Tuesday, October 18, 2011 - Morning
Romney: 66.3%
Perry: 13%
Cain: 9.3%
Tuesday, October 18, 2011 - EVENING / AFTER DEBATE
Romney: 65.8%
Perry: 15.5%
Cain: 7.6%
Wednesday, October 19, 2011 - Morning
Romney: 65.9%
Perry: 14.6%
Cain: 7.7%
Thursday, October 29, 2011 - Morning
Romney: 65.7%
Perry: 14.5%
Cain: 8.0%
ROMNEY IS SLIPPING.
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Where you see the biggest difference though is in another question.
Who will win the Iowa Caucus 2012?
I had not been writing that down, but I am pretty sure remembering Romney was sitting in the high 50s / low 60s, maybe just over 60% on that one immediately pre-debate.
Right after the debate and yesterday, Iowa was sitting at an almost evenly divided race with all three sitting right around 30%, like 31.6%, 29%, 31.1% and the slight rest going to all the others, something like that. I remember thinking yesterday it was almost a dead three-way tie in Iowa.
Today:
In chances - Who will win the Iowa Caucus 2012?
Thursday, October 20, 2011 - Morning
Perry: 34.7%
Romney: 25%
Cain: 19.5%
Via Intrade:
ROMNEY WENT FROM a 50% to 60% CHANCE OF WINNING IOWA BEFORE THE DEBATE TO A 25% CHANCE TODAY!
ROMNEY is trending down, down, down, and no matter if one supports Cain, Perry, or whoever, we can at least rejoice together in seeing Romney’s stronghold breaking!